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This is why i've been such an insufferable bore/pedant when it comes to pointing to SA so much. So many reasons you can't draw parallels.
I’m sorry, but I have to call you on this. Your prior post was predicated on a baseless comparison (assuming a consistent case hospitalisation rate between UK and SA).
The only comparison I have been making is in a SA context itself, which is that on the key metrics Omicron has been better than Alpha or Delta variants. I have yet to see any data that the UK experience won’t be the same (I.e. we will do better in this wave than in the prior waves, despite more limited measures).
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I’m sorry, but I have to call you in this. You were the one who made a completely baseless comparison (assuming a consistent case hospitalisation rate between UK and SA).
I mean, what you say is true but I did literally state that it was an invalid comparison. I only did it to demonstrate the dangers of comparing to a completely different nation without supporting evidence.
The only comparison I have been making is in a SA context itself, which is that on the key metrics Omicron has been better than Alpha or Delta variants.
Fair enough. I don't really care that much that its less severe than last time round, more that this time round is going to be more than bad enough to cause big problems.
Stonehedge
Absolutely, on all counts. Gauteng ran out of free PCR tests every day...meaning you either didn't get tested or had to pay $50 to a private hospital. A whole lot of people in SA do not have any access to healthcare too, which might explain their high excess deaths recently. This is why i've been such an insufferable bore/pedant when it comes to pointing to SA so much. So many reasons you can't draw parallels.
At that point you start looking towards Denmark, who test at a similar rate to us and are seeing roughly 1% admission rate (and growing a bit) at the moment. Although I have a feeling the UK and Denmark aren't particularly similar public health wise either.
Various epidemiologists in the UK have said that they are guessing a UK rate of 1% give or take but they are very much guesses.
1% of 145k cases is 1450 admissions per day. The UK gov have been privately working to the theory that if admissions stay below 1,000, everything is ticketyboo. And the higher you go above 1k, the worse the impact.
Edit: New slice of admissions data just arrived. In England on the 28th, 2,082 people were admitted to hospital with a Covid diagnosis, of those 1,593 people had Covid as their primary reason for admission.