Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Is there a graph including non Covid paitents?

Is there a graph including non Covid paitents?

I wondered that. I haven't looked very hard but the following article talks about 18,000 patients a day on average were coming to hospital in need of an emergency admission in the winter.

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/blog/2019/12/five-reasons-why-nhs-winter-may-be-different

So current "because of Covid" admissions are an extra ~25% on top of an already stretched and under funded/resourced NHS.

Is there a graph including non Covid paitents?

Do you mean so you can identify what % of admissions overall are related to Covid?

Edit: These figures are published monthly, next batch due on 9th Jan. On 1st December 5% of all NHS beds in England were occupied by Covid patients.

Yeah. Was surprised by how high the indirect number was.

Lateral flow tests to be ‘constrained’ over next two weeks, warns Sajid Javid

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/30/lateral-flow-tests-to-be-constrained-over-next-two-weeks-warns-sajid-javid

That's a good thing though? Public sector workers are more comfortable taking time off when unwell because they tend to have more job security. Private sector will work sick instead.

An extreme illustration of the concept: https://mobile.twitter.com/jmillerlewis/status/1473767485140840458

New pre-print out of SA, looking at severity of Omicron infections recorded in Gauteng.

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3996320

Twitter thread summary here: https://twitter.com/miamalan/status/1476535918781734912

tldr:

-4.9% of cases were admitted.
-29% of those admissions were with severe disease.
-Median hospital stay was half that of Delta admissions.
-18% of admissions were in children, five times more than Delta wave.
-Omicron transmission rate meant that while less severe, the wave lead to nearly the same number of admissions as Delta wave, but in a shorter period of time.

Not much info on reasons why Omicron disease is less severe, but early data shows SA's very high level of Delta infections likely played a significant part.

Our record number of cases by specimen date is about 145k. 4.9% of 145k is 7,105.

7,105 admissions per day into the NHS would be a disaster. I'm not saying that will happen, it most likely will not for a lot of reasons...better access to primary healthcare, vaccinations etc etc. That said, we have more long term conditions, waning booter effifacy in the oldest populations and an older population overall so there are still a lot of unknowns.

However, hopefully this serves as a good example of why the simplistic narrative that "omicron is mild" based on experiences in SA, doesn't really provide much factual encouragement for the ladies and gents working in our hospitals. Even if we have half the admission rate of Gauteng, it could still be a breaking point situation imho.

Wife tested positive today, droppin’ like flies

So in your view we should be locking down? What practical measures do you think should be taken? And what are the trade offs?

I think you agreed a few days ago that comparing cases numbers between UK and SA is apples and oranges, so what it the point of applying the 4.9% case hospitalisation rate from SA?

UK tests a lot more than south africa who likely only have tests available for the more severe cases compared to uk where some ppl are testing themselves a lot.

Uk tests so far around 400 million. South africa at 21 million. Population slightly larger in uk but around 10% or so. Data could imply that uk have a lot more ppl infected which is likely true but much more likely that South africa do not have the means to test ppl unless they are severly infected. Hence the rather high admissions rate.

So its not a very meaningful statistic. But still even at 5 or 10 % of that its not a great situation either

Absolutely, on all counts. Gauteng ran out of free PCR tests every day...meaning you either didn't get tested or had to pay $50 to a private hospital. A whole lot of people in SA do not have any access to healthcare too, which might explain their high excess deaths recently. This is why i've been such an insufferable bore/pedant when it comes to pointing to SA so much. So many reasons you can't draw parallels.

At that point you start looking towards Denmark, who test at a similar rate to us and are seeing roughly 1% admission rate (and growing a bit) at the moment. Although I have a feeling the UK and Denmark aren't particularly similar public health wise either.

Various epidemiologists in the UK have said that they are guessing a UK rate of 1% give or take but they are very much guesses.

1% of 145k cases is 1450 admissions per day. The UK gov have been privately working to the theory that if admissions stay below 1,000, everything is ticketyboo. And the higher you go above 1k, the worse the impact.

Edit: New slice of admissions data just arrived. In England on the 28th, 2,082 people were admitted to hospital with a Covid diagnosis, of those 1,593 people had Covid as their primary reason for admission.

For context, in January last year we had a 7 day average of. 4k admissions per day, in a variant that led to more severe disease.

This is why i've been such an insufferable bore/pedant when it comes to pointing to SA so much. So many reasons you can't draw parallels.

I’m sorry, but I have to call you on this. Your prior post was predicated on a baseless comparison (assuming a consistent case hospitalisation rate between UK and SA).

The only comparison I have been making is in a SA context itself, which is that on the key metrics Omicron has been better than Alpha or Delta variants. I have yet to see any data that the UK experience won’t be the same (I.e. we will do better in this wave than in the prior waves, despite more limited measures).

I’m sorry, but I have to call you in this. You were the one who made a completely baseless comparison (assuming a consistent case hospitalisation rate between UK and SA).

I mean, what you say is true but I did literally state that it was an invalid comparison. I only did it to demonstrate the dangers of comparing to a completely different nation without supporting evidence.

The only comparison I have been making is in a SA context itself, which is that on the key metrics Omicron has been better than Alpha or Delta variants.

Fair enough. I don't really care that much that its less severe than last time round, more that this time round is going to be more than bad enough to cause big problems.

Edit - I will stop being uncivil.

I know you are coming from a good faith position, so am I. Different perspectives are fine.

One thing I do agree is that the exceptional strain on NHS workers is awful, even if we don’t have total system collapse.

We ought to give a significant material reward to NHS workers. The clapping was a sick joke.

All good mate.

Now, can anybody tell me what the antidote is to being hooked on Covid numbers? I literally don't have to do this anymore. Not for a few months at least.

Delete twitter off your phone for starters

I don't have a Twitter account. But yeah, could see that might help some.

Is there any good statistics of how many ppl have had covid in a given population anywhere? Not confimed but believed i mean based on some kind of modelling. Considering how large the asymptomatic procentages have been there cant be all that many left that hasent had it?

I barely know anyone who did not yet get it (confirmed) appart from my parents. Id guesstimate that at least 80% of those i know have had it confirmed with a test.

I've not had it, or I've had it this week and LFTs are negative with my super boosted immune system and I can't get a PCR to confirm.

Have u tested antibodies? Anyone could have had it unless they checked for antibodies every 6months or so since the start of the pandemic tho?

Which is why i would think it would be interesting to know if there was a modell suggesting the numbers in a population.

I've not had it since testing began.

Might have had v1 march 2020* but when I tested for antibodies earlier this year I had none.

ONS models for England are based on sample testing and maths they estimated 1/35 in England.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases

*Or the weirdest cold ever for husband and I, took two weeks to shift and came with weird guts for two days and mild headaches.