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So in your view we should be locking down? What practical measures do you think should be taken? And what are the trade offs?
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UK tests a lot more than south africa who likely only have tests available for the more severe cases compared to uk where some ppl are testing themselves a lot.
Uk tests so far around 400 million. South africa at 21 million. Population slightly larger in uk but around 10% or so. Data could imply that uk have a lot more ppl infected which is likely true but much more likely that South africa do not have the means to test ppl unless they are severly infected. Hence the rather high admissions rate.
So its not a very meaningful statistic. But still even at 5 or 10 % of that its not a great situation either
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badboybjorn
@Stonehedge
Our record number of cases by specimen date is about 145k. 4.9% of 145k is 7,105.
7,105 admissions per day into the NHS would be a disaster. I'm not saying that will happen, it most likely will not for a lot of reasons...better access to primary healthcare, vaccinations etc etc. That said, we have more long term conditions, waning booter effifacy in the oldest populations and an older population overall so there are still a lot of unknowns.
However, hopefully this serves as a good example of why the simplistic narrative that "omicron is mild" based on experiences in SA, doesn't really provide much factual encouragement for the ladies and gents working in our hospitals. Even if we have half the admission rate of Gauteng, it could still be a breaking point situation imho.