Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Actual admissions versus the pessimistic models

https://twitter.com/COVID19actuary/status/1476230510808637443

My view is that the Scottish and Welsh administrations would dearly like to implement a hard lockdown but the lack of furlough cash has stopped them.

That’s a fair point but if it’s supported by accurate testing is there a problem?

The same was eluded to at the drop to 7 I can’t recall if that was yourself or not.
Seems having lots of NHS staff isolating whilst fit for work would be problematic.

I doubt they will.
There was a big chat on twitter about it last week by the dashboard team.

You made it sound like they have ulterior motive.

I don't think it's quite that bad.
For a start, 3 tests a day would generate an awful lot of wasted plastic.

But in seriousness.
The middle ground is, in this case pessimistic.
https://twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1476261526206038018

That chart (and the news from France) does raise the question that @rodan talked about above, the personal v societal responsibility that we all have. Vaccination (and general herd immunity) has done little to minimise the explosion in transmission in the UK. The reduced chances of hospitalisation as a result of vaccination become more a matter of personal responsibility (with a tertiary impact on the NHS).

@edscoble The Scottish administration is too incompetent to be part of any grand conspiracy. No ulterior motive intended.

Nothing wrong with it in theory if accurate testing can be done but the issue is not currently having the testing capacity to meet existing demand

I kept my post brief as a reply and left out the social element, one could argue with mask wearing and constant testing you can also be responsible.

But then everyone you know also has to do that... and your workplace and...

It's not realistic and I'm not convinced vaccines are that risky anyway. And so it's better if most of us get vaccinated.
Also for the NHS and the staff there, those working in shops etc.

But we have no family history of bad vaccination reactions at all.

It's also a bit more complex than BS on Facebook. Countries with low government trust have lower vaccination rates. Risk is maths, maths isn't always taught well etc.

But people refusing to get vaccinated and refusing to test themselves and happily go into nightclubs / big parties
...I must say I don't get it.

Being in hospital isn't exactly fun times.

And healthcare here is free at the point of entry, while I totally agree with that, isn't not that like the USA it also bankrupts you, we all pay for everyone.

So it is therefore I think a societal issue as well if people don't get vaccinated, do not test themselves and behave like COVID isn't a thing. Then pass it on etc etc.

Of course USA healthcare bankruptcy is also a societal issue, just that this language of "personal responsibility" is usually in a context of "small government, pay for everything yourself, society is overrated, NHS needs to go" but perhaps you don't mean it that way.

I can see that if you need two negative tests from day 5 you may conduct more tests than from day 7. Although it’s still unclear how strong the correlation is between negative test and not infectious… besides the magic graph.

Where are we with supply of Lf’s? Short bump or massively underprepared!?

Should have edited to replace "tertiary.." with "implications for the NHS"..
How we fund healthcare is a separate complex problem and I think our free at point NHS has shown its strength in COVID times.
I'm very sceptical about notions of common good as I believe we are all fairly venal selfish creatures evolved to care about our immediate surroundings.

I'm not sure there, we freely give to charity and voluntarily help people we are not related to.

Sure we can all be asses sometimes, but if we were all purely venal and selfish we'd not have an internet or lfgss I think :)

I believe we are all fairly venal selfish creatures evolved to care about our immediate surroundings

Projecting a bit there, obviously there are plenty of people like that but kindness and altruism are one of the reasons we managed to evolve so successfully as a species.

The restrictions in Scotland and Wales making all the difference to transmission.. The data in a week's time will be illuminating.

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And to disprove my scepticism about NPIs..

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That’s good to read! I am a teacher, but also a dad so that’s my main concern. I agree with keeping schools open. At the moment, it feels like the gov are sleep walking towards more closures - most likely through staff absence

I believe we are all fairly venal selfish creatures

speak for yourself, king x

At the moment, it feels like the gov are sleep walking towards more closures - most likely through staff absence

Probably true. There was a Monday in December when they weren’t sure how they were going to open at my wife’s school. Will likely be worse in January.

we're gonna go extinct soon

Too successful then.

We are here

vinyl lovers taking another beating, sigh

State employees reluctant to re start work after Christmas shocker..

Edit to add some data pre Covid

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The 4 times a day Covid fundamentalists will have to be asked to stop testing themselves so much to help the nhs.