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Speaking of reps, there were a number of raids recently, right? Theory on Reddit is that a few factories flew a bit too close to the sun and as a result some of the most popular reps have almost doubled in price, people willing to pay big money for NOS of some of the ‘best’ reps.
ElGonzo-
There are too many hysterical teenagers in that Reddit. You'll get a more nuanced view at rwg.bz, which is the more intelligent of the rep fora.
Opinions of outsiders differ, and the insiders never broadcast what is really going on. The whole rep industry is very opaque. The manufacturers/assemblers have various soubriquets but it's impossible to know who or where they are, or whether two outfits are actually one, or four.
The police like to spread pictures of raids and people in handcuffs, but they're many times more corrupt than the British bobby. Noob, a big name high quality manufacturer, has apparently been shut down, but it might have reopened under a new name.
The only certainties are that the quality of the product has improved and prices have increased a great deal. (By 'product' I mean the best reps of Rolex sports models and a handful of other things with mass appeal, e.g. sports models from Breitling, AP, Omega and so on. Nearly everything else is a bit second division, not hugely convincing and much cheaper.)
Availability has suffered a great deal, hence the rise in prices. Nobody knows how much of this is because of Covid and how much because of the police. Everyone is waiting to see if availability improves next year and prices come down. Right now the best Subs from the most reliable dealers are $250 - $750. The best Daytonas are $750 - $950. Lots of enthusiasts have stopped buying new and are mostly trading with each other.
nick_h.
I wonder how much the Helsons of this world overlap with the replica industry? I bet they are sharing parts and materials and workshops and staff. The economies of scale are impossible to resist. Rep manufacture is spread over several sites. Unbranded parts are made openly. Branded bits are made in secret. Watches don't become 'illegal' until the last stage, when the branded parts are added.