Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Good timing. Balloux has just posted a thread about exactly this. TLDR; the models were extremely accurate until this summer, when rising vaccinations and unpredictable population behaviour have made them less so.

So later today, we will get admissions figures for 15th December. Lets say that it takes 7 days to catch Covid and get sick enough to end up in hospital. That means today's figures for admissions will be based on infections that happened on 8th December or later. That's still pretty early on to be showing decent info about Omicron.

That [^^^^^ the Katy Balls text] is progress, in that it has taken nigh on 2 years to forever stop waiting "2 weeks" for more data, and that's finally down to "2 days". If that's a proportional change then this "wait 2 days more for updated data" should last about 6 months.

I do find it quite perverse that the government are citing Denmark as a reason to feel positive about Omicron severity, on the day that Denmark's testing infrastructure was overwhelmed meaning they have had to stop using PCR testing to track Omicron and only now have lagging indicators like admissions to look at.

Even more weird considering that epidemiologists think there's a chance that the 0.6% admissions rate in Denmark may well change once Omicron starts to make it into older cohorts.

Still though, why not roll the dice and take the risk? Its only people who will die after all.

The lag is longer from infection to hospitalisation although Omnicron might of shortened that

There is a period between a person being infected with COVID-19 and showing symptoms, during which they still might be infectious to others. This is called the incubation period. This is estimated to last between 1 and 14 days for COVID-19, and the average time to develop symptoms is 5 to 6 days2; 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days of infection3.

Time from developing symptoms and being admitted to hospital varies, with age having the largest impact on the length of the delay. Median times from symptom onset to hospitalisation vary between 1 and 6.7 days depending on age and whether or not the patient lives in a nursing home4.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveytechnicalarticle/wavesandlagsofcovid19inenglandjune2021#time-between-covid-19-infection-symptoms-hospitalisation-and-death

Which puzzles me a little, is the government expecting that admissions data this week is going to paint a full picture?

Or are they smart enough to look very closely at admissions in London and see if the curve bends slightly up this week to inform their decision?

I mean, it looks like our testing capabilities will be relatively useless within the next few days....its already straining at the seams. if we have 200k infections right now, using Denmarks admission rate, thats still 1,200 admisisons a day in the next few weeks. I think its likely we are way about 200k per day at the moment.

Which puzzles me a little, is the government expecting that admissions data this week is going to paint a full picture?

Or are they smart enough to look very closely at admissions in London and see if the curve bends slightly up this week to inform their decision?

Loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooool.
They are just making sure they aren't having to officially cancel Christmas again. No thought or data going into that decision. Like 'get Brexit Done' - deal with the consequences later. (And probably blame joe public for mixing too much when they do finally act).

Made it to France by ferry last night.
Very quiet boat, very long wait at uk checkin and French border control, due to the many pieces of paper required (covid pass, 24h negative test evidence, certificate of travel for 4, sworn undertaking for 4, online registration of location of isolation x 4).
Other than that, pretty painless trip.

Had a visit from the Gendarme today to check that we were actually where we were supposed to be.

Having a visit from 2 police officers wearing masks, bulletproof vests and a sidearm is a bit of a sudden way to wake up from a nap.

apparently N95s are known as FFP2 in Europe, which can be found in Boots (depending on stock)

Yes

and N99s are FFP3s

90K

So glad I did a SAGE yesterday and called 150K+

Having a visit from 2 police officers wearing masks, bulletproof vests and a sidearm is a bit of a sudden way to wake up from a nap.

You have been Matej Mohoriced!

Having a visit from 2 police officers wearing masks, bulletproof vests and a sidearm is a bit of a sudden way to wake up from a nap.

Similar but 'with Alsatians' rather than 'wearing masks' is how I was woken up from a nap at CDG airport after finishing Paris-Brest-Paris on about 8h sleep over 5 days. I was sleeping in the terminal overnight as I knew that if I'd gone to the nearby hotel I'd booked I would never have woken in time for my flight. The earlier set of police had said it was fine to sleep there if I had proof that I had an early flight the next day but the officers that woke me up weren't convinced by the documentation I showed them, until I realised it was the details of my flight TO France 5 or 6 days before and not the homeward bound flight that morning. All sorted once I'd showed them the right bit of paper, although I didn't sleep very soundly after that.

RS-Online have plenty of masks for a non-Amazon option, eg

https://uk.rs-online.com/web/p/disposable-respirators/7660371

Luckily they didn’t ask me to open the box of Christmas crackers I smuggled into the country…

My wife and I registered with the ‘new online platform’ to give details of the location of our self isolation.
The website was definitely not done on a 80 billion budget…

At the port, they said they wanted both of the 6 year old and 1 year old registered on the website, despite being exempt from quarantine due to age.
Did it online on the boat, the website and generated paperwork was different.

French border control didn’t scan or look at the kids paperwork as it was unnecessary.

When the Gendarme turned up, they were asking after the kids, and didn’t have paperwork on their system about both my wife and I.

French paperwork stereotypes are real.

90K

So glad I did a SAGE yesterday and called 150K+

I know I'm a big cynic, but based on the fact they dumped an extra 30k cases onto data for the 15th yesterday (bumping cases by over 30%), I remain cautious that there's a testing backlog still to report.

I guess end of next week we will know if the growth continues...

60 > 90K in a week.
Next week 90 > ???

Data from Denmark is still inconclusive on the risk of hospitalization.

But of course with schools closed now and -some- people cancelling parties and reducing social contact, corrective action is already happening.

In France, where I thought ffp2 were mandatory, police municipale, gendarmes and even (analysis) laboratory staff are wearing just surgical masks

Thing is I know Witty intervention has helped by scaremongery to reduce infections from last week.

So ironicly SAGE have helped give us a Christmas. (Assuming all good)

Deleted as utter nonsense

Yesterday my sister-in-law came round with her two kids. #1 developed symptoms overnight and is now LFT positive. No PCR appointments today so booked for tomorrow. Not going there for Christmas day anymore. Re-planning to have my in-laws round here for Christmas day on the assumption we are LFT clear then. Or I might get the day in bed...

So 1 million = "a few". Erm, m'kay.

Actually I think the above is nonsense anyway!

Not sure your figures for your graph are correct.

100 * (2^15) = 100 * (sqrt(2)^30) = 3,276,800

A 28% reduction on the daily increase would reduce the daily multiplier from sqrt(2) = 1.4142 (4dp) to:-

((sqrt(2)-1)*0.72)+1 = 1.2982 (4dp)

After 30 days those 100 cases would now be: 100*(1.2982^30) =~ 250,000

But it only buys you 10 days as on day 40 the reduced rate has grown to 100*(1.2982^40) =~ 3.42m

BBC article about the Southampton club I mentioned a few pages back:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/newsbeat-59740748?fbclid=IwAR3djpRv2ZMy0v8mOpYjsyHIP95i-dyGXPORfNtv-MsC4ZD-qKztHU2GDwo