Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

I hope I'm totally wrong, but IMHO I think the last few days of case data hint at testing capacity or delay issues. Weird how positivity rate is still climbing but cases are not keeping up.

The national figures for testing indicate loads of capacity, but Twitter is starting to fill up with lots of anecdata on test delays.

I guess we'll find out for sure over the next few days.

Just read that Denmark have hit the limits of their testing capabilities and are formally switching to lagging indicators for tracking their wave.

A Twitter thread on the above and what it might mean:

https://twitter.com/VictimOfMaths/status/1473223362629537796

The Downing Street Christmas party won’t come back to bite them this year because there were no restrictions until everyone has got the taxi back home.

I think a bit of that, but also large behavioural change. 2 weeks ago people were still going out and to xmas parties and that caused the first big growth spurt. Now restaurants, pubs, theatres etc are closing due to lack of bookings. Putting the brakes on that will cause a temporary drop/slowing of growth (now), but as everyone heads around the country for Christmas we'll probably see a huge jump from New Year onwards.

Must say, when I ran past various pubs and restaurants in Blackheath last night, they were quiet but not that quiet. But I think you're probably right.

Has anyone answered this yet?

I’m having exactly the same experience, got jabbed at 10am yesterday then bang on 12 hours later things went downhill quick.

Just got the headache and sore arm now - hoping they fade away soon, really don’t want a repeat of last night.

I'm thinking about buying a mask to wear on public transport - something that offers slightly more protection to me than my usual washable fabric mask intended to catch my germs before they get to other people. Is this a good idea? Are supplies to healthcare / other key workers ok at the moment?

What suggestions of things to ask for in a shop? (Trying to avoid delivery and especially Amazon.)

N95 dust mask from Leyland SDM

Self certification has been extended from 7 days to 28 days to reduce the impact of sick notes on GP’s.

A combo (medical and fabric) if it's not too much? it's mainly just to stop us from spreading plagues on others.

I was like that minus the dreams the day after my Moderna booster, day after that tired and then back to normal, hopefully you'll be similar and nothing more

I've found that a cycling neck warmer over a mask is fairly comfortable and actually helps to keep the mask in place

apparently N95s are known as FFP2 in Europe, which can be found in Boots (depending on stock)

the pointy shape of them is a bit awkward though

At this point, FFP2 or FFP3 should be something everybody should at least consider imho.

Helps you avoid catching Covid and far better at stopping you giving it to others than a face covering or surgical mask.

I don't think most people know what Covid being airborne actually means. Its not just something that is in droplets from sneezes or coughs, its in the air you exhale normally too.

In general yes it's to stop us spreading it. I'm asking about recommendations to stop reduce risk of catching it, also.

Good article on FFP2 and how well they reduce transmission.

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2021/12/16/what-are-ffp2-masks-mandatory-in-some-european-countries

Its a fucking scandal that we expect our NHS staff to work without them.

Got you, not a bad ideas, Stonehedge's respond is quite useful.

Ok thanks all, going to look for some non-valved FFP2 or N95. Leyland only seem to have non-rated ones now. Screwfix have lots of valved ones but only P1 unvalved. Time to hit the pharmacies I guess. Any recs for reusable ones?

Given that the reusable ones need to have their filters changed regularly, I think you'd probably be better off with disposable. That said, in terms of reusing disposables, I saw some info that suggests you can get at least 100 hours of use out of a disposable one before performance significantly degrades. In fact one scientist I saw suggested that the straps would break before a disposable gets clogged, even in a high particulate environment.

These are the ones we get on with. Slightly too small for my face, slightly too big for Jana but we both still get a pretty good seal so if your face is in the middle of ours, you should be golden!

https://www.amazon.co.uk/OptiPro-Particulate-Respirator-KN95-FFP2/dp/B086LJTJ2V

Lunchtime update in The Spectator, quite interesting

What happened in cabinet By Katy Balls

When Boris Johnson held a cabinet call yesterday afternoon, the expectation was that an announcement on new restrictions would be imminent. But the meeting dragged on for three hours and the Prime Minister emerged afterwards announcing that nothing had changed. The situation is ‘extremely difficult’ and arguments both for and against restrictions are ‘finely balanced’ so the government would ‘keep its eye on the data’. In a battle of Sage forecasts vs data realists, the latter had won. For now.

So what happened in that meeting? ‘Boris did a great job and encouraged a proper discussion and respected other views,’ says one minister. ‘He had quite a lot [of] humility’. Michael Gove was, as usual, leading the arguments for more lockdown. But this was based on Sage forecasts of what might happen which have lost some credibility in the eyes of cabinet members who were — for the first time in a while — genuinely being consulted.

Chris Whitty started off with a presentation making the case for restrictions (yet he stopped just short of calling for them directly). But several members of Johnson’s cabinet are vocally opposed to new restrictions. They argue that there needs to be clearer data before any restrictions are brought in — with whispers of resignations if Johnson pressed on without this. These members of government hope that more time (even a few more days) will offer clarity that could show Omicron is milder than previous variants.

Behind the scenes, the Chancellor is understood to have played a key role in warning against rushing into decisions that could cost billions — although he was quieter in the meeting, only giving his thoughts when asked directly to by the Prime Minister. Other ministers keen to see more modelling include Kwasi Kwarteng, Commons leader Jacob Rees-Mogg (who highlighted how people can reduce their travel without being under lockdown orders) and Transport Secretary Grant Shapps (‘although it was never quite clear what he was saying,’ I’m told). Other ministers have been pressing on Johnson that any new measures are guidance, not law.

When Johnson emerged, talking about the need to wait for the data to work out Omicron’s severity, he was using the language of those who opposed lockdown. They argue, in effect, that Sage models cannot be trusted as they are composed of hypotheticals with a negativity bias baked in. The next few days of hospital data, it’s argued, will tell us much about how severe Omicron is and if lockdown is needed. Data is emerging not just from South Africa (where cases now seem to be falling) but Denmark where Omicron has been found to be significantly less likely to put patients in hospital.

Yet there remains a sense in government that, on the current direction of travel, restrictions are still more likely than not — it is just a question of when. Civil servants have been working on plans for a two-week ‘circuit breaker’ after Christmas. The fact that Sajid Javid said on Sunday that any new measures would have to be put to parliament before being implemented suggests that Christmas day could avoid being affected by new measures. Instead, it’s more likely that the measures will be brought in from 28 December.

Everyone loves bashing SAGE's modelling but I have yet to see the unlimited resources of the Government produce or procure anything better

Figures at 4 will be interesting...

My best is that we're going to see a bunch of cases added to the second half of last week.

All eyes on London admissions again, although technically speaking the latest figures would refer to infections from 7th December, still pretty early on in the Omicron wave.

That Spectator article mentioning lower hospitilisation seen there so far highlights the problem. Yes, they are seeing lower rates. The problem is, that isn't strong evidence that Omicron is less severe....yet.