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I think a bit of that, but also large behavioural change. 2 weeks ago people were still going out and to xmas parties and that caused the first big growth spurt. Now restaurants, pubs, theatres etc are closing due to lack of bookings. Putting the brakes on that will cause a temporary drop/slowing of growth (now), but as everyone heads around the country for Christmas we'll probably see a huge jump from New Year onwards.
villa-ru
Stonehedge
I hope I'm totally wrong, but IMHO I think the last few days of case data hint at testing capacity or delay issues. Weird how positivity rate is still climbing but cases are not keeping up.
The national figures for testing indicate loads of capacity, but Twitter is starting to fill up with lots of anecdata on test delays.
I guess we'll find out for sure over the next few days.