Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Certainly the most people I've known at any time to have tested positive in my social / work circles. #Anacdata

The rantings of Prof Reicher have provided much amusement in my household over the weekend. Today seems to have been particularly difficult for him (perhaps by the end of this week he might have learned some self awareness and a sense of his own ridiculousness).

Enjoy with cold sherry and a packet of hula hoops...

https://twitter.com/ReicherStephen

There seems to me to be a paradox about the lockdown enthusiasts' position. If Omichron case numbers are doubling every day, then what would the point of lockdown be. The best estimate of lockdown versus the delta variant I have read, quoted a 56% reduction in cases due to strict use of NPIs (how this number was reached was rather opaque). Assuming that Omichron is twice as transmissible as Delta then we could half this (SAGE seem to like fag packet assumptions). So why would you bother with a 28% reduction against exponential growth. It would be like removing a few grains of rice in the old chessboard story on each square.
The reluctance of our media scientists to discuss the seeming failure of vaccination to hinder transmission also begs the question... Are they just pretending that they can do much about rising case numbers?

May as well let it get as absolutely bad as possible right? Why bother doing anything to make it not as bad if you can only make it a bit less bad? Why bother saving just a few lives? Why bother only letting as few avoid long Covid? Why not just kill everyone now, they're all going to die one day, right?

It would be like removing a few grains of rice in the old chessboard story on each square.

which is still a significant chunk, hospitals have very finite room for patients.

But sure, yeah, exactly what snotty said, you gotta be super merciless to think it's not worth it.

cases by specimen date were 102k for last Wednesday, dread to think what the highest day will turn out to be!

If anyones having trouble getting test kits then a quick search on your local authority website might bear fruit

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It's a thought experiment rather than a policy suggestion. The economic cost of lockdown is estimated at around £700m per day in the UK. The social costs are almost unimaginable.
An annual lockdown is not sustainable in any way.

So why would you bother with a 28% reduction against exponential growth.

https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=plot%281.56%29%5Ex+vs+%281.28%29%5Ex%2C+0+%3C+x+%3C+7

I probably have my numbers mixed up a bit here, but exponential growth is kind of the key point isn't it? Even a small reduction makes a huge difference over time.

The reluctance of our media scientists to discuss the seeming failure of vaccination to hinder transmission

I always thought they were COVID-19 vaccines, not anti-virus transmission vaccines? Mind you, I don't have a clue about any of it, it's just what I seem to remember. I also don't know if it's possible to make one of the second type, but I'd assume that if it were, that's what they would have gone for?

An annual lockdown is not sustainable in any way.

Hopefully it's not needed every year, but having one when it's needed, or even better, getting ahead of one before it does might improve things for everyone, rather than having thought experiments in leaving everyone to suffer.

I reckon a 4 week lockdown every January could give some folks a much needed break and help reset minds & bodies ready for the new year, plus reduce transmission of winter viruses/bugs.

Who really does much in January anyway? Start the new year new you stuff in February, gyms'll go from 0 to full straight away.

Just thinking out loud...

week 2 (middle of Jan) is peak deaths from respiratory infections spread through xmas mixing, maybe embracing non christian beliefs is the answer...

Burns night
Australia Day
Holocaust Memorial Day
My chuffing Birthday
National Kazoo Day

Who wants to be in lockdown for any of that?

It would be like removing a few grains of rice in the old chessboard story on each square.

I really think you need to do some more research on what the term exponential growth really means.

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So do the cabinet, apparently.

So have I got this right? There are basically no restrictions just now, and only mild suggestions of not mixing indoors as a solution?

Keep calm and carry on.

Just make sure you don’t need to use a hospital over the next month or so.

Its worked for me for the last 40 years.

I'd overlooked Kazoo day, and will now march on Downing Street to protect my freedom to toot.

A worthy hill to die on. Good luck.

Don’t dead,
Covid inside

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Did South Africa introduce any lockdown measures?

Pfizer 1 & 2, barely any arm ache. Moderna booster, shivers all night and headache, bad dreams and general feeling like it’s the beginning of the end and I need to make arrangements.