Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Sorry, highlight the bit for me where it says 1 million cases a day? Which is the reason it was posted

They do but it lags, it generally lines up fairly closely with the ZOE model

U are welcome to some tabloid muck spreading...

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1535965/omicron-news-covid-boris-christmas-million-cases-day-warning

Crossed wires on the 1m cases.. I was chuckling at the fag packet assumptions in my quote.

For their estimated prevalence they take reported PCR results and extrapolate for that region. They make geographical adjustments for vaccine uptake.

https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-estimates-revised-after-change-to-methodology

Others seem to be confusing the methodology they use for researching symptoms with the methodology they use for prevalence which aren't the same

Sorry that's not totals per week?

That is daily, as projected on the BBC press coverage.

It is currently believed there are about 200,000 cases a day, meaning by next week cases could have skyrocketed to as many as a million.

Why are they attributing this to Whitty?

They are extrapolating forward his statement that cases are doubling every two days

Sure, but:

CORONAVIRUS cases are set to hit a million a day by Christmas, Chris Whitty told the Cabinet this morning in a stark warning.

Did he tell them that cases will hit 1m/day, or did the Express extrapolate from current numbers and/or drop kind of some "without restrictions" caveat and then attribute the exaggerated number to him?

These kind of articles are fodder for the anti-restriction nuts.

If I didn't like Whitty I could write an article saying "cases will hit a billion/day by the end of January, says Whitty" despite that being obviously bollocks

So the only place the figure is quoted is the express and no where else?

Precisely why there needs to be some moderation from SAGE worst case scenario modelling imo.

Cases are doubling every two days but they seem to of not understood the context or starting point

Currently having a wee glass of port to celebrate lockdown averted.

The media will just spread the muck they are told imo.

Ooh port. I wonder if I have any that hasn't gone off.

I think you mean matured?

@frankenbike @greentricky I know it is deliberately sensationalist and not representative of what Whitty said - I am just saying that is what they have done

No port at christmas...but what do you have with stilton?

But a doctors receptionist tole me different (where is the roll eyes or shoot yourslef in the head smilie)

Also PCR and LFT sense (is that the right word) PCR senses viral RNA and LFT senses viral proteins. I think that is right off the top of my head.

There is still 3 days...

There was a tweet doing the rounds exactly this. Double every 2 days... OMG it gets to the whole world infected in 30 days, lol! All scientists are idiots. Wearing a mask is like pooing your pants!
No thought that it might be the current rate and will start to slow as more people are infected or mitigations are put in place. Made me sad.

I think you over estimate Political intelligence.

😂

I can’t see it, given the falling cases, falling deaths and static admissions, can you? I mean, it’s a world away from the ‘doubling every 2-3 days’ of a few days ago. It seems pretty clear that the London wave is passing through, there’ll be further waves as it rolls around the country, but given most other places have better vaccination rates and lower population density than London, it looks ok.

I don't know.

I think the cases may well be circa 150k tomorrow going on previous pattern. (weekend lull) Gov need to recall Parliament to motion anything which is a 48hr process. Clock is ticking...

They are monitoring by the hour apparently!