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Sorry that's predicted daily infections in the UK FYI as quoted up thread.
That isn't what was modelled in any of the scenario's
You can see the pre print of the modelling:
https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/reports/omicron_england/report_11_dec_2021.pdfAnd doubling time is still sub two days on the latest data
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1042235/20211219_OS_Daily_Omicron_Overview.pdf
greentricky-
From the preprint..
We assume that the severity of
Omicron is identical to that of the Delta variantAnd..
All scenarios considered
assume a 7.5% reduction in transmission following the introduction of limited mask-wearing
measures by the UK government on 30th November 2021, which we assume lasts until 30th
April 2022. This is in keeping with our previous estimates for the impact of increased
mask-wearing on transmission (22)Based on..
We assume that this
decrease could be completely reversed by the face covering measure, and that this would result
in a 7.5% reduction in R over the contingency period, comparable to the effect size measured in
a regression analysis across 92 regions (Leech et al.) and a cluster randomized trial in
Bangladesh (Abaluck et al.)
hurricane_run
Sorry that's predicted daily infections in the UK FYI as quoted up thread.