Tldr, if omicron is as virulent as delta, then we have already waited too late to lockdown to stop the NHS reaching breaking point in January.
It's not a simple binary thing though.
Assuming the NHS does become overwhelmed by a certain date, would you want there to be 10,000 cases that it can't treat or 1,000,000 cases it can't treat?
A late lockdown is still better than no lockdown.
Yes, if you read post #24735 you will see I agree
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Tldr, if omicron is as virulent as delta, then we have already waited too late to lockdown to stop the NHS reaching breaking point in January.