Tldr, if omicron is as virulent as delta, then we have already waited too late to lockdown to stop the NHS reaching breaking point in January.
No chance of us locking down until it’s too late unfortunately.
It's not a simple binary thing though.
Assuming the NHS does become overwhelmed by a certain date, would you want there to be 10,000 cases that it can't treat or 1,000,000 cases it can't treat?
A late lockdown is still better than no lockdown.
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Tldr, if omicron is as virulent as delta, then we have already waited too late to lockdown to stop the NHS reaching breaking point in January.