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I think locking down is the right thing to do now. My point was that the course is pretty much already set for the next three weeks to a month, as infections now result in hospitalisations and deaths 2-4 weeks down the line. And given the biggest driver is spread within the household, all the current infections will go on to spread it within their family group meaning the total pandemic continues to grow for a period even after a lockdown is implemented.
deleted
It’s doubling every 2 days so a hard lock down now would have a huge impact in January.