Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Thanks! Just piecing together when I potentially would have been in contact, I have ruled out the wedding the weekend before as girl friends Xmas party certainly seems to have been a super spreader event.

Just piecing together when I potentially would have been in contact

Doing the same now - positive LF, just been for PCR. FFS...

Guessing it's either from public transport bad luck or someone in the office (we did mask up in shared spaces, but who knows who was in a given meeting room last...)? Lobbed the info at occ health for them to chase up people I can't and have told colleagues + contacts also. Could also be mini c00pses bringing me presents from school, of course...

On a positive note, they really have the PCR Drive-Thru process down - it's almost McD's efficiency. Volunteers/workers doing an excellent job.

Appears on the Healthcare page if you select an NHS region and on link below.

As they say, the 10/12/21 London R value estimate of 1.0-1.2 reflects transmissions 2-3 weeks ago as it's a trailing indicator
:(

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-value-and-growth-rate

On a positive note, they really have the PCR Drive-Thru process down - it's almost McD's efficiency. Volunteers/workers doing an excellent job.

If I go again I'm taking my local centre a box of chocolates

If I go again I'm taking my local centre a box of chocolates

*forrestgump.jpg*

I've taken a Saino's gift card to each of my vaccination appointments.

I heard a third-hand estimate of the current R in London yesterday that is so bonkers I hope it got mangled in translation. Or it wasn't and that's why "shit is popping off".

Was it above 3? If so, that sounds like R for Omicron at the moment, rather than R for Covid overall.

Woah! So you've had to isolate for all that time?

Yeah it's been mega boring, I feel like Julian Assange...

No fortunately not, as @rj says 10 days since positive test, plus something to do with symptoms, tbh I wasn't really feeling like doing much for a bit anyway so all a bit academic.

I guess it is because it is still in your system but you are not infectious

My cod science conclusion is that Covid-contaminated snot is still leaving my system. There may be something in this as the few times I've actually managed a negative LFT I've been unusually snot free, then gone back to being snotty again. I'm almost snot free now so I'm hoping my Christmas present will be a negative LFT.

I definitely don't still have it - got better, got supercold, got better again, plus the PCR I took yesterday due to the close contact came back negative.

Isn't the issue that only a handful of labs can check for the dropout?

I don't know how they do it but it must be hard - he hardly ever logs in and even then it's on his new username I think - not @Dropout - which I can't remember. Maybe best to text him?

nearly bought a lathe

Was there a tempting staff discount?

Aw, I hope @Dropout replies

I think 4-5 was what Delta was going to do without any mitigations/vaccines, and Omicron has just overtaken Delta in London.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/omicron-dominant-variant-london-cases-covid-b971803.html

Doubling every 1.7 to 2 days.

Great shout. Will sort something when I get out of isolation.

(edit - actually... not sure that'll work, as anything they handle there surely must be treated as contaminated?)

Work party went ahead with about 50% turnout yesterday. Guess what - first positive reported just now. Colour me surprised.

Things looking a bit better in SA...

Telegraph link below..

https://archive.md/YRsQr

I hate to be that guy but the jury is very much out on that.l despite the articles.

Admission rate still rising really quickly in Gauteng, deaths doubled last week and more worryingly, excess deaths doubled in SA as a whole last week.

Add to that the fact there were reporting problems over the weekend and concerns about access to free testing, the picture is very muddled there.

Edit: just to add, the times ran an article like that yesterday before finding out that the drop in cases was due to a reporting lag issue. Others made the same mistake. I wonder if the Telegraph did the same?

But, for what it's worth, I really fucking hope that Omicron is peaking after only three weeks in SA.

The Telegraph has our best interests at heart, don't you worry.

Given the average reader is probably over 95 you'd think they exercise a bit of caution but I guess not

Maybe. They have a welfare portakabin at my walk through centre.

Quite possible re the lag.. the SA doctor was back on the C4 news tonight with the same mild message albeit at a community level. It will be Christmas before the SA data really tells any sort of story.

Cool. Will look into it here. Thanks!

It will be Christmas before the SA data really tells any sort of story.

We're 20 months into "we'll know more in two weeks".

Very true.

I mean, the Telegraph ran an article saying Covid was basically over in the UK less than a month ago. A lot can change in two weeks.

Thought I'd share this chart of the situation in Gauteng in SA. Cases look like they may be peaking if you squint (although rumours of reporting bottlenecks), admissions slowing slightly possibly but expected to continue to grow for a while yet, deaths lagging behind but won't be reflecting the vast majority of cases and admissions yet.

Case fatality ratio is quite low at the moment but excess deaths have doubled so the supsicion is further reporting issues.

I've been working on a Omicron forecasting neural network with a customer for a few days. Has been a privilege to learn from some wicked smart academics and clinicians but man, I'm looking forward to switching back to less serious stuff tomorrow.

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Christmas anxieties building. My partner requested (via me) that my three brothers do a test before we get together, one of them shrugged and said yeah whatever, the other two in no uncertain terms told me where to go, they wholeheartedly believe this is not a public health issue, and it is being used by the government / big business to control us, and by them doing the test they’re complicit in our sleepwalk into a fascist totalitarian state.

Oh boy.