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kerplaagh
I haven't seen any speculation from anybody with qualifications and data as yet.
My experience is that my social circles, which are heavily middle class, have been super careful for the previous waves but have thrown themselves back into normal life in recent months and spent more time in pubs, bars and restaurants and have been going to house parties etc. Not to mention going back to the office. I've definitely noticed friends wearing masks less (before the reintroduced mandate), or at least being a bit sloppy in terms of forgetting to take one out with them.
My (total) guess is that perhaps people who were able to be more careful in previous waves, but which I mean people who worked from home mainly, wore masks and were reluctant to go back to the pub at the time, maybe have lower immunity levels now than people who were not able to do that in the previous waves? I sense a certain level of pandemic apathy creeping in.