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The other thing that may be a factor here is the amount of electronics in modern cars.
When all the built in touch screens, ECUs, digital displays etc are FUBAR in 20 years time, it will be a hell of a job to strip it all out and replace. Most will just get scrapped, I would think.
Stuff that has dials and switches is easier to keep going.
ChasnotRobert
lynx
Picking up on Steve's post from yesterday - I was thinking about the future of ICE cars as I drove home from Peaslake this afternoon.
My gut feeling is that the petrol cars that survive the transition to an EV norm are going to be the older ones, and not just because they'll be the ones that have the nostalgia value- I genuinely think they're better than modern ones.
Not, to be clear, as transport to get from A to B. My 2015 Mercedes is simply a better can than the 2006 Mercedes or the 1996 Volvo that went before it. But, and this is the key - the older cars were much move involving. I think a large part of that is that the older cars had hydraulic power steering - no car that I've tried with electronic PS has much feel. But they also had more character in how they delivered their power as well. The Volvo 850R (at the end of my ownership, I'd be interested to see how it performs now having belonged to Nurse Holiday for a while now) was, as a car, nowhere near as good as the E63 as a turbo-charged road car. But it was a lot more fun. Partly because the E63 doesn't really feel turbo-charged in the old school "nothing nothing nothing WOOOOSH" manner - it just feels hugely linear. But that means it doesn't have the excitement of turbo-lag, nor does it have the feeling of a naturally aspirated engine coming on cam and starting to really scream.
TL:DR - I think the cars that we will keep are the older ones, which is possibly going to throw up some interesting bargains in ten years.