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  • I think we're likely to see gas restricted to businesses, with home-owners able to use it at certain times, if we run low enough (and we have barely any capacity storage).

    Which may mean no electricity shortage - but would mean very high prices for electricity.

    But! It might be really windy.

  • The odds of you seeing domestic supply interrupted is incredibly small but we might see a "Gas National Emergency" which would see industry being curtailed. There are barely any contracts any more that are classed as uninterruptable so a lot of industry can be shut down as needed. One of the big issues though is that the plan in the past was you shut down the gas generation and fire up the coal which is less and less of an option. The price will drive a lot of the demand down anyway, the three week subsidy of the fertiliser plants ends this week and would now require a subsidy double the cost to deliver the same benefit. Might be flat beer and less goods on the shelves sooner rather than later.

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