Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Thanks folks. First game yesterday and Lou would have been there. She was actually 39, not 37, a bit overweight maybe but she was fit enough, no underlying health issues that we knew of, yet it killed her within a week. Just unreal.

My pal Keith is my age (58) and pretty fit, non-smoker, and was double-jabbed, yet he was laid flat out for 10 days. Spoke to him yesterday, he had just been to the local park for 30 minutes, his first time out. He’s exhausted and still coughing, but getting better. Being vaccinated is no guarantee that you won’t get sick of course, but I can’t help feeling that he’d have been in deep shit without the vaccine.

All this affects me in that my wife is in the final stages of her 4-year medical qualifications. She has her final case studies and tasks/assignments to be completed by December 31st, and if she contracts Covid then she’ll have to isolate and, worse, won’t be able to meet her patients and studies (they’re all classed as vulnerable, being adults with learning disabilities) and she won’t meet her target and she’ll fail her final year and won’t be able to sit the final exam, so she’ll have to repeat the final two years. I can’t risk that, so I have to refrain from busy pubs, football and gigs until 2022. It’ll be a massive pain in the arse (I have gig tickets already booked, and I’ve not been to my beloved Leyton Orient in 18 months) but I just can’t risk it.

This ain’t over, by a very long chalk indeed.

I am so sorry. RIP Lou.

The Alpha Variant gave me a night of discomfort.

The Delta knocked me for 6 for a week now. (Double vacced)

What I find incredible is my wife and friends were not affected. (Touch wood)

That brings me back to blood type. I am blood type A. Everyone who I just mentioned are O or other. (AFAIK)

I really think this is key to cracking this horrendous disease...

https://b-s-h.org.uk/about-us/news/growing-association-between-blood-group-a-and-covid-19/

Please read and share if you think it would help make any difference.

Charlie

RIP Lou.

This is another horrible story someone sent me today. It’s a FB link but you don’t need FB to read it

https://tinyurl.com/v63zktjz

The latest Imperial report findings make interesting reading.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/english-study-finds-50-60-reduced-risk-covid-double-vaccinated-2021-08-03/

In summary, double vax is about 50% effective at preventing Delta infection and about 60% effective at preventing symptomatic Delta infection. Apparently this is quite close to the figures that Israel and the US are seeing too.

Kind of feels that the vaccines are really helping but clinging on by their fingernails. I'm personally feeling a little bleak about the Autumn when football fans will be back in stadiums and pubs and kids back in school. I hope I'm wrong.

I'm personally feeling a little bleak about the Autumn when football fans will be back in stadiums and pubs and kids back in school. I hope I'm wrong.

Also fewer people willing to have outdoor gatherings and instead going indoors.

Vaccine passport question, does anyone know how overseas visitors are able to meet the vaccine passport requirements? Are places accepting proof of vaccination from foreign states?

I have two Pfizer jabs from 4 months ago and a recent antibody test to show they’re still working. I’m not registered with a GP in the UK.

Also fewer people willing to have outdoor gatherings and instead going indoors.

Also more people will be double vaccinated, and more people will have some form of natural immunity post-infection, and infection is not a measure of severity... The report itself said the results weren't worrying.

Details here, under 'Rules if you're fully vaccinated' https://www.gov.uk/guidance/how-to-quarantine-when-you-arrive-in-england

… and students back at university.

Vaccine Passport rant by elite triathlonist Joe Skipper

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Oh absolutely, I get that there's progress being made as time goes on. More just tagging on with the (potential) downsides.

I'm hoping everything will continue to move in the right direction over Autumn/Winter, but I'm expecting the situation to get worse, and hoping that I'm wrong!

On a tangential note, I've been pretty risk-averse over the past year and a half or so (remote working in a town of 600 people or so makes that pretty easy), but it'll be interesting to see when people's (myself included) (now arguably irrational) aversion to large/close gatherings will dissipate. There was an outdoor concert with 10,000 people attending in Belfast yesterday, and the thought of going to something like that just seems completely alien to me. To be honest eating indoors at a restaurant does at this point.

I've been pretty risk-averse over the past year and a half or so (remote working in a town of 600 people or so makes that pretty easy), but it'll be interesting to see when people's (myself included) (now arguably irrational) aversion to large/close gatherings will dissipate. There was an outdoor concert with 10,000 people attending in Belfast yesterday, and the thought of going to something like that just seems completely alien to me. To be honest eating indoors at a restaurant does at this point.

I get what you mean.

Also more people will be double vaccinated, and more people will have some form of natural immunity post-infection, and infection is not a measure of severity... The report itself said the results weren't worrying.

Fair. I'm still worried about whatever the next variant is though. Antibodies, whether from vax or infection don't last that long. Covid19 has kept the mutations of concern coming so far. How do things look if in the Autumn we are looking at Epsilon (or whatever the next one will be) and the vaccines are only 35% or 40% effective...

I don't mean to be a doom monger, just feels like the widespread mood that the pandemic is nearing it's end might be misplaced. And maybe that mood might make things worse.

just feels like the widespread mood that the pandemic is nearing it's end might be misplaced. And maybe that mood might make things worse.

I feel the same, don't think it is doom mongering IMO. Seems less mask wearing and hand sanitising.

Maybe not quite doom mongering, more a fear/uncertainty of future unknowns.

What we know now is quite reassuring.

I don't mean to be a doom monger, just feels like the widespread mood that the pandemic is nearing it's end might be misplaced.

I don't get that vibe (that's it's over). What I do get it more people doing things they used to do as if they are normal. But that's because we are able to and we may actually be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. We need to remain careful, but we don't need to hide at the moment (sorry, Mick - hope you're able to feel more comfortable soon!).

This is worth a read imho: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/prof-francois-balloux-the-pandemic-has-created-a-market-for-gloom-and-doom

Key points (from my perspective) wrt your comment "How do things look if in the Autumn we are looking at Epsilon (or whatever the next one will be) and the vaccines are only 35% or 40% effective...":

Another concern is a mutation that enables the virus to “escape” the vaccines…

Over two million viral samples have been sequenced, and we’ve probably already seen all the mutations that are technically possible. From our observations, we know that vaccine escape will not appear after one or two mutations – it will require an accumulation giving rise to the right combination. We will not go from one day everyone being protected to everyone being vulnerable the next. We will have time to update the vaccines.

Also, while a vaccine-escape variant would indeed be able to infect vaccinated people far more easily, it would not nullify the protection against severe disease and death provided by the vaccine and prior infection.

I know his experience is frustrating, but this is a bit of an edge case, no? It doesn't really exemplify the systematic failure of the COVID passport scheme. This is someone who has had two doses of a vaccine in two different countries on two different continents being asked to prove that to a third country ... It wouldn't exactly be my first priority when designing and implementing such a system during a pandemic.

Adding this from the interview because it makes me happy/hopefuly:

You’ve often stated that the pandemic will be over by mid to late 2021. Do you stand by this?

Depends on how you quantify it. I would say the pandemic is over when Covid-19 doesn’t cause significantly more mortality than other respiratory viruses in circulation. This will happen first in places such as the UK that have been privileged to get vaccine coverage – I expect at the latest early next year.

Yes and no.

I'm in France (arrived yesterday) and am double jabbed in the UK / have an NHS covid pass.

I can't go to any restaurants or some shops / venues like swimming pools because the French app won't accept the UK QR codes.

That doesn't feel like an edge case considering the number of people planning to or currently holidaying in France from the UK.

(sorry, Mick - hope you're able to feel more comfortable soon!)

No worries! There's a good reason I'm in a town of 600 people, was ready to get away from the big smoke and relax in the countryside.

Basically as a result of generally not keeping up with the news (not a COVID-specific thing), I'm aware that I'm not as knowledgeable of the situation I'd like, so I'll err on the side of caution. Given that I intentionally changed my living situation to be a bit more cut off from civilisation a few years back, that basically means chilling out at home and the immediate vicinity. Not a terrible thing by any means! Pretty much the same as pre-COVID, but with remote working.

The info in your reply does have me feeling a bit more positive about the whole situation, so thanks for that.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/09/convince-anti-vaxxers?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

Basically facts from out groups don't matter...if someone doesn't see you as "their group" they may not listen.

But if people in their group climb down, it can make a difference.

Thanks but i know that bit, no need to quarantine, its the vaccine passport stuff though, will i be able to go out or do i need to get tested all the time?

I'm uneasy about autumn and winter. Not because I'm some expert, but because I'm a cautious person. And also I know 2 people my age double vaxxed who've got covid. In the last 2 weeks.
I've just been to IKEA in Croydon on public transport so I'm aware of the weirdness of holding that fact, using public transport, and going to a big box store. I'm supposed to be going to crystal palace south fest thing on Saturday and that's making me nervous too.
In short, while i think the vaccine will do its job, I'm still unsure because biology and science. But I'm also holding out that biology and science and numbers outweigh anecdotal evidence.

TL;Dr I don't fucking know. Masses of people make me edgier than they used to (and they used to make me edgy anyway). I'm happy with working from home. I don't want to go back to the office. I'm not sure I want to be milling round with loads of people.

I don't get that vibe (that's it's over).

To be fair, I'm only picking this up in people I know in their early to mid 20s. Its anecdata for sure. It just feels that the twenty somethings I know are not taking many precautions because case numbers are lowish and if shops/bars/clubs are open, then why not make the most of it?

Another concern is a mutation that enables the virus to “escape” the vaccines…

Over two million viral samples have been sequenced, and we’ve probably already seen all the mutations that are technically possible. From our observations, we know that vaccine escape will not appear after one or two mutations – it will require an accumulation giving rise to the right combination. We will not go from one day everyone being protected to everyone being vulnerable the next. We will have time to update the vaccines.

Also, while a vaccine-escape variant would indeed be able to infect vaccinated people far more easily, it would not nullify the protection against severe disease and death provided by the vaccine and prior infection.

Thanks for this, this is incredibly reassuring. However, my understanding is that full vaccine escape isn't needed to overwhelm the NHS.