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I don't mean to be a doom monger, just feels like the widespread mood that the pandemic is nearing it's end might be misplaced.
I don't get that vibe (that's it's over). What I do get it more people doing things they used to do as if they are normal. But that's because we are able to and we may actually be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. We need to remain careful, but we don't need to hide at the moment (sorry, Mick - hope you're able to feel more comfortable soon!).
This is worth a read imho: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/prof-francois-balloux-the-pandemic-has-created-a-market-for-gloom-and-doom
Key points (from my perspective) wrt your comment "How do things look if in the Autumn we are looking at Epsilon (or whatever the next one will be) and the vaccines are only 35% or 40% effective...":
Another concern is a mutation that enables the virus to “escape” the vaccines…
Over two million viral samples have been sequenced, and we’ve probably already seen all the mutations that are technically possible. From our observations, we know that vaccine escape will not appear after one or two mutations – it will require an accumulation giving rise to the right combination. We will not go from one day everyone being protected to everyone being vulnerable the next. We will have time to update the vaccines.
Also, while a vaccine-escape variant would indeed be able to infect vaccinated people far more easily, it would not nullify the protection against severe disease and death provided by the vaccine and prior infection.
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(sorry, Mick - hope you're able to feel more comfortable soon!)
No worries! There's a good reason I'm in a town of 600 people, was ready to get away from the big smoke and relax in the countryside.
Basically as a result of generally not keeping up with the news (not a COVID-specific thing), I'm aware that I'm not as knowledgeable of the situation I'd like, so I'll err on the side of caution. Given that I intentionally changed my living situation to be a bit more cut off from civilisation a few years back, that basically means chilling out at home and the immediate vicinity. Not a terrible thing by any means! Pretty much the same as pre-COVID, but with remote working.
The info in your reply does have me feeling a bit more positive about the whole situation, so thanks for that.
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I don't get that vibe (that's it's over).
To be fair, I'm only picking this up in people I know in their early to mid 20s. Its anecdata for sure. It just feels that the twenty somethings I know are not taking many precautions because case numbers are lowish and if shops/bars/clubs are open, then why not make the most of it?
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Another concern is a mutation that enables the virus to “escape” the vaccines…
Over two million viral samples have been sequenced, and we’ve probably already seen all the mutations that are technically possible. From our observations, we know that vaccine escape will not appear after one or two mutations – it will require an accumulation giving rise to the right combination. We will not go from one day everyone being protected to everyone being vulnerable the next. We will have time to update the vaccines.
Also, while a vaccine-escape variant would indeed be able to infect vaccinated people far more easily, it would not nullify the protection against severe disease and death provided by the vaccine and prior infection.
Thanks for this, this is incredibly reassuring. However, my understanding is that full vaccine escape isn't needed to overwhelm the NHS.
mmccarthy
Stonehedge
Fair. I'm still worried about whatever the next variant is though. Antibodies, whether from vax or infection don't last that long. Covid19 has kept the mutations of concern coming so far. How do things look if in the Autumn we are looking at Epsilon (or whatever the next one will be) and the vaccines are only 35% or 40% effective...
I don't mean to be a doom monger, just feels like the widespread mood that the pandemic is nearing it's end might be misplaced. And maybe that mood might make things worse.