You are reading a single comment by @Greenbank and its replies.
Click here to read the full conversation.
-
The big question is clearly does testing data = real world infection levels.
No, that's what the ONS study is for. They test randomly regardless of whether people think they've got it or had it.
Greenbank-
Ah, I meant "the big question is does the fall in positive tests reflect a broader reduction in real world infections".
The ONS study may help with this, but hospital admissions are the only thing that can really provide that idea of its prevalence in the population (with a two week lag).
Next ONS release is this Friday for weekending the 24th. Will be interesting to see how it tallies with the daily testing figures.
Scrabble
I see all of that - just dont see how without the last bits (vaccine plus infection based immunity) you would get a reduction in cases. All the other things probably mean a less steep rise, but not a decline.
The big question is clearly does testing data = real world infection levels and only hospital admissions will give us this answer really.