Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

At my 2nd Vax. It’s decidedly more empty than for my 1st Vax

Try thinking about this in terms of probability.

As @Señor_Bear said. You'd have to imagine that wherever your 1.5mm window is looking, 0.114mm of the line in the window is red. Although, the smaller the window, the less likely the 7.6% will be true, it could be more, it could be less.

If there's a 7.6% chance of a random friend having had it then there's a 92.4% chance of a random friend having not had it.

So the probability of two random friends both having not had it is 92.4% * 92.4% = 85.4% (1dp)

For 10 friends picked at random never to have it it would be 92.4% ^ 10 = 45.4% (1dp)

For 100 friends 0.0369% (3sf)

For 200 friends it's below 0.00002% (1sf)

For 500 friends it's 0.0000000000000007% (1sf)

For 1000 friends multiply the above result against itself. It's vanishingly small.

Soooo... Why do so many people appear to claim they don't know anyone that's had it?

so many people appear to claim they don't know anyone that's had it

Where does this come from?

You'd have to imagine that wherever your 1.5mm window is looking, 0.114mm of the line in the window is red.

My last attempt before ditching the idea and call everyone saying they don't know someone who had covid a liar...

The red lines would propagate next to each other because covid is caught from a person, not randomly distributed across the population. So you'd have clumps of red, not 5 million 0.114mm lines evenly distributed.

Covid deniers, I've met people randomly, and know a couple of people, that claim nobody in their circle of freind has had it.

Again, think about the probability of the marks being in any given place, not exactly where the marks are made.

Covid deniers

You've answered your own question then.

claim nobody in their circle of freind has had it

How big are their circles? Are those circles full of deniers? Assymtpomatic?

This annecdata does not amount to "so many" as far as I can tell.

Where does this come from?

A stochastic random sampling of friends, acquaintances and encounters...

It's a talking point that these kinds of people like to parrot off each other because it's impossible for the listener to disprove. I bet most of them know it's not even true for them personally.

There's (possibly / probably / who knows) a Bayesian inference that could be calculated and inferences about the distributions homo- / heterogeneity - i.e. does it "clump", because of the way that viruses spread.

That maths is way beyond me these days though - Maybe there's some actual studies done on that, which could give credence either way.

Think you are right, probably you are right. As there is always a but with me, lots of people have died and this attitude I find angering/upsetting.

Understand the maths (ish) maybe I am very unlucky.

How about 'famous' people that have died of covid?

I think another factor is the circumstances of people you know.

We all got sent home from work nobody got it.

But, a colleague of mine knows someone who works in a care home. Just before mass vaccination she brought it back home, one of her parents died from it.

My parents are pensioners, my brother is living by himself and studying remotely, but my keyworker uncle (court) and his wife (primary teacher) now have long covid.

Then if you have kids or not also makes a difference... it's easy enough to pick friends with the right job and age with "oh look they didn't get it".

Yeah like I don't get the flu as everyone else in the house is vaccinated and the office bugs are not including flu...

A vain hope that asking the question means the responder will realise the true meaning of their answer. Not because I don't know.

I just wanted to write stochastic, tbh

Good enough reason

Why do so many people appear to claim they don't know anyone that's had it?

Probably because there's a large asymptomatic and/or or non-canonical/ pathognomonic symptom, cohort.
As well as the stats chat upthread.

https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2021/07/1000-people-at-utrecht-festival-infected-with-coronavirus/

So, at least a 1 in 20 chance of getting infected at an outdoor festival that had a (admittedly flawed) ‘test/vaccination for entry’ system. Seems crazy that the U.K. is only ‘recommending’ that nightclubs etc have a similar system.

someone said the quiet part out loud

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This video on Bayesian statistics has one of my favourite math jokes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7GgLSnQ48os&t=55s

"Wow! What are the chances of finding me here?"
"Well, it's the first time I've found you here, so I don't know"

Hannah Fry is awesome (as is Matt Parker).

Reminds me to look into Royal Institution membership for my (11yo) daughter as she's now old enough to go to the Faraday Christmas Lectures if she was lucky enough in the ballot.

Nice! There's a few great RI talks up on youtube with the pair of them. Definitely a good influence to throw at your kids