• As @SeƱor_Bear said. You'd have to imagine that wherever your 1.5mm window is looking, 0.114mm of the line in the window is red. Although, the smaller the window, the less likely the 7.6% will be true, it could be more, it could be less.

  • You'd have to imagine that wherever your 1.5mm window is looking, 0.114mm of the line in the window is red.

    My last attempt before ditching the idea and call everyone saying they don't know someone who had covid a liar...

    The red lines would propagate next to each other because covid is caught from a person, not randomly distributed across the population. So you'd have clumps of red, not 5 million 0.114mm lines evenly distributed.

  • Again, think about the probability of the marks being in any given place, not exactly where the marks are made.

  • There's (possibly / probably / who knows) a Bayesian inference that could be calculated and inferences about the distributions homo- / heterogeneity - i.e. does it "clump", because of the way that viruses spread.

    That maths is way beyond me these days though - Maybe there's some actual studies done on that, which could give credence either way.

  • The red lines would propagate next to each other because covid is caught from a person, not randomly distributed across the population

    But it's not the population of the country that makes up your "line".

    It's the circle of friends of said covid denier, that makes up your line.

    That circle of friends is drawn from random bits of the (possibly clumpy) total population, so the clumpiness disappears.

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