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There's a delay though isn't there, and that is concerning, between cases being discovered and them going to hospital.
The relationship can be tested with a delay taken into consideration. The latest (delta) wave has been going on long enough to find analogues in the October and December waves. More data will allow us to be more confident, of course. You can pull the raw data from data.gov.uk, pull out as many days as you can/want with a two-week lag, and just model the relationship for equivalent periods at different times. It's still a very, very, strong statistical relationship, but the impact this time compared to previously is (so far) weaker.
(there are, of course, probably much better ways of modelling this. I'm no epidemiologist. But I'm sure regression is one of their tools).
I'm still concerned about the harm (long term) caused by lockdown and also the harm (long term) caused by getting covid and surviving.
Me too.
And none of this is coming across in any communication from the government. It feels very much like sticking it to the kids repeatedly. As in, "it's your fault you're all down the pub" "ah you don't need vaccinating yet" and finally "ah, get on with it".
Totes. They're fucking useless. And pricks.
There's also the impact this is having on kids who have now lost two years of education.
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Yeah, we're not modelling beyond "draw some lines". But my work is at an operational "what the fuck is going on out there" level, not a "what will it look like and what can we do to help bring numbers down" lvel.
I can and have seen the hospital beds numbers staying relatively stable for about a month, and if you look at coronavirus.gov.uk you can see it's increased (both daily and 7 day average) for the last 2 or 3 weeks.
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kids who have now lost two years of education
I don't disagree, but I also think there's an unfortunate quantification of children's learning going on in the media and messaging. Working in HE I'm aware that we need/prefer people to come in with certain skills, but I also think a lot of the talk about 'catching up' in terms of curriculum, is bullshit. I don't think you were meaning that exactly, just flagging it as a thing I've been noticing. I don't have any answers.
Chalfie
hoefla
There's a delay though isn't there, and that is concerning, between cases being discovered and them going to hospital.
I'm still concerned about the harm (long term) caused by lockdown and also the harm (long term) caused by getting covid and surviving.
And none of this is coming across in any communication from the government. It feels very much like sticking it to the kids repeatedly. As in, "it's your fault you're all down the pub" "ah you don't need vaccinating yet" and finally "ah, get on with it".
Everytime I've run through Herne Hill (by the station) it's not 20 - 29 year olds sitting on the pavement outside pubs. They're the ones doing the serving.
(I am aware of observation errors)