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I think the decision to take Bernal to the Giro not the TdF was an odd one
Not really. Nobody knew how his back was going to hold up.
If Pogacar rode away from a fully fit Bernal and Roglic I would be a bit suss. The only rider in this race who has the pedigree to be considered a genuine competitor is Carapaz and we’ve only got one stage on which to base the difference in class.
%~}
^This.
I think the decision to take Bernal to the Giro not the TdF was an odd one. I get why Ganna wanted to do his home tour, as it were (then concentrate on the Olympics? not sure) but he's another massive loss for them. No Dennis as a sub (contract issues and/or Olympics), and no Pidcock (Olympics again). So it's a much less strong squad than it maybe could have been. Obviously G's crash has been a big factor as well.
With Roglic crocked as well, and not a wealth of other other really strong GC riders, you can make the argument that there isn't the strength to test Pogacar or put pressure on a weaker UAE team.
Having said all that, I still think this would affect the margin rather than the result.