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Well that's my point really, the deaths aren't flat on a log scale. A linear scale hides all the detail.
I won't guess what the effect of vaccinations will be. Seems too early to draw any conclusions. Probably want to look at the case fatality rate and hope it drops off significantly.
frankenbike
Given the noise levels inherent in the 'died 28 days after a Covid diagnosis' metric, and the relatively small numbers involved, I can't see it'd make much difference either way. At the moment the case numbers are rocketing, the hospitalisation numbers are increasingly very slightly, and the deaths numbers are effectively flat. HMG is gambling that this will remain the case. Hopefully they're correct. Whether they are or not, I don't think anyone really knows.