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I know it's not binary effective/ineffective (and this is a gross simplification) but 5% of 50mm adults double jabbed is still a lot of people (2.5mm) and if 1% (25,000) of those require hospitalisation then the NHS is in for a really big shitty 3rd wave.
Well no, by your numbers its 5% of those double jabbed could catch Covid, not will- I don't have a verifiable number on that "could" probability but it won't be 100%. As more people get jabbed the probability decreases, too.
Yukirin
50% every 7 days is a daily growth factor of 1.06, so that gives a doubling rate of about 12 days.
1.5^(12/7)=2.004 (3dp)
Caveat the "Deaths within 28 days of positive test" metric and the high sensitivity of such low numbers but, as I said in the earlier post, we'll have a bit more confidence in the figures by ~6th July.
Personally I'm starting to wonder if July 19th won't need to be delayed. I think the Government are banking on the numbers still being quite low (despite undergoing exponential growth) and opening up regardless.
Not sure if people really understand what "being double jabbed is 95% effective against a new variant" actually means. I know it's not binary effective/ineffective (and this is a gross simplification) but 5% of 50mm adults double jabbed is still a lot of people (2.5mm) and if 1% (25,000) of those require hospitalisation then the NHS is in for a really big shitty 3rd wave.
Marr had a piece recently about his recent serious Covid infection despite being double jabbed: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57640550