EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

Well what I see happen is:

DUP loses, TUV, UUP/Alliance gains.
SF gains. (not a fan of that lot TBH... but well, it is what it is)
Leaving a small DUP, and a group of parties that can sort work together.
And the TUV being a melt.

TUV will not work with SF, so there will be (even more) Stormont bickering. But it really is just a one man show, so what is Jim Allister going to do? He said he doesn't want to be in government with SF. Well...

You are right it is polarizing, but I also don't see it last.

They are just wasting so much useful time on it though... more bickering, more rallies/protests and perhaps a few more July riots, and all with f-all result anyway cos Boris don't care.

Well one look at Jim's angry red face is a hint about the TUV :P

I genuinely love to read the general practice everyone in the North and South has to ensuring they mention they don't support SF... They also don't support any of the other parties, so... how do they keep getting in, no-one ever seems to vote for them.

Every main party in the North is either corrupt/extreme/ineffective, in the following categories

Corrupt: Sinn Féin, DUP
Extreme: Sinn Féin, DUP, TUV, UUP (Garvaghy Road is still fresh in some people's ninds)
Ineffective (via lack of strong policy): Alliance (unionist with small "u"), SDLP (nationalist with small "n" and link to Republic's FF)

As much as many dislike Sinn Féin and the many valid reasons for disliking them, they've managed to pull in a slew of voters in ROI and NI, by simply keeping quiet or picking up on the anger of the general populace (who seem totally or willingly ignorant of worrying aspects of said party)

The solution to all this is going to be as complicated as the run up to 1998, but maybe saved by the lack of cult figures and a growing understanding on both sides that the UK couldn't give a fuck

And I think any of you with experience of NI understand that media etc still kowtow to Unionist politicians as if they've never had a roll in inciting violence, while their history of similar actions follows every Republican politician til their death. Everyone forgets David Trimble and his part in the facist Vanguard...

I agree, SF is very good at playing the long game & pretending they are progressive up north. Down south they are much more left, here, nah. But they do politics well.

And yep, not going to tell me the DUP is squeaky clean. At least Doug Beattie calls the LCC for what they are, drug dealers.

Best we can hope for is that there won't be too much bickering and riots and economic damage, Brexit is a shitshow that hits here early. Once GB has to do customs checks it's gonna be "fun".

Perhaps the answer lies in the reasoning you mentioned. People who voted for SF or DUP still vote for them. Other people do not vote because of the lack of other options.
The other reason, which is more likely, is that the vote is based on either - vote for DUP to stop SF getting a seat or vote for SF to stop DUP getting a seat.
The lack of other ‘reasonable’ options is a headache and one which will not be cured in my lifetime, that is a pity. Perhaps future generations may have better options.

Huh I looked up vanguard, great lads... Not.

Looks Trimble played a role in bringing down the sunningdale agreement too. Lovely.

I have to respect him though for peace work.

Unfortunately he's gone towards the "NI protocol bad!!!!" side :/

History here raises its head - yet again. People have long memories here. Peter Robinson and his beret; the nudist Sammy Wilson; cringeworthy at best😁

That melts my head. We have STV which is much better than the shite two party system that fptp brings. And YET.

(For Westminster yeah, the above applies)

Some of them are, aren't they?

https://immigrationbarrister.co.uk/when-is-a-child-born-in-the-uk-to-eu-national-parents-british/

It's my Dutch side... at some point we move on :p

We don't forget though ;)

Ah Sammy Wilson: The DUP"s gammon bait. His bare arse bothers me less than his views 😁

See above re. Headache. That’s what the country is and what it gives you. Are there any other counties (democratic or so-called democratic) who have terrorists in government. It makes no sense but here we are …..
moaning for NI!

I struggle to work out which is his head and which is his arse!

That's my fear... full customs checks... but my hope is still that on a human or realistic level, the general population in NI and ROI will find a way to work together around it. As naive as that may sound, NI and ROI trade has already grown considerably and with no ill effects to either market.

Nelson Mandela ran South Africa for quite awhile. Israel has had a number of terrorists hold power.

The lack of other ‘reasonable’ options is a headache and one which will not be cured in my lifetime, that is a pity. Perhaps future generations may have better options.

Also newly formed 'reasonable' parties tend to get targeted by the other big parties before they can get enough traction.

🤣

To understand NI politics is to go insane, to steal a quote.

Like a budget Lovecraft Poe monster :p

Susan Kay interviewed lots of Unionists, views aren't as extreme as the news would show you.

The "NI" identity is growing. Voting patterns are slowly changing.

There won't be customs checks between ROI and NI. Can't have any infrastructure per the GFA.

Ireland will not want it either, so I guess Westminster will keep taking the piss out of the EU...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-57579418

Delay on chilled meat checks. Good but I bet Westminster will keep doing this "checks, what checks?" Never trust a Tory Brexiter ;)

Some of them are, aren't they?

https://immigrationbarrister.co.uk/when-­is-a-child-born-in-the-uk-to-eu-national­-parents-british/

Probably not - that requires the parent to have settled status, not simply be living here under FOM. Why would you have obtained settled status when the UK was part of the EU?

Yup. Oddly I was thinking about this, new parties nearly have to align themselves to the ‘traditional’ parties which completely defeats their purpose. Like a non-sectarian party which gets continually asked which religion they support - like the old jokes.
Things won’t change here for a long time unfortunately.

My son is British as I arrived 5 years before his birth.

I worked I guess that helped. So sent my p60s no bother.

But as you say, not everyone will have kept paperwork.

And treaty rights are trickier if you didn't work, so if the other parent worked but is an arse and won't help you, it can cause hassle.

I also heard stories of British parents being unwilling to get the paperwork for the non British ex, result, kid can't get British citizenship application sorted.

It doesn't say anything about 'obtaining' settled status (EUSS or whatever) it says

“settled” shall be construed in accordance with subsections (2) to (4) …
(2) Subject to subsection (3), references in this Act to a person being settled in the United Kingdom or in a British overseas territory are references to his being ordinarily resident in the United Kingdom or, as the case may be, in that territory without being subject under the immigration laws to any restriction on the period for which he may remain.”

To establish whether such a child is a British citizen by birth, it will be essential, therefore, to consider whether either of her parents were ordinarily resident in the UK without any time restrictions.

To be optimistic, I think it will. Not too long ago ROI voters still voted on civil war lines, FG vs FF

Not in my lifetime. Coverage of SF in the Republic in the news here makes for interesting times. According to the news here, SF didn’t achieve the groundswell of support they were expecting. There seemed a revulsion about voting for a party which supports terrorism and whose policies make no sense.
Rather bizarre considering their singleminded stance on a United Ireland. Maybe the Republic doesn’t want NI 😁😁

Plenty don't, usually as they've no understanding of the complexities of the politics there and view it as a basket case. Plenty in ROI would be happy never to have a UI. But then again there are some who wish to rejoin the Commonwealth so...

I don't think that's fair, FG/FF will always bring up SF's past. They know who's pulling strings in the background, but the can't outright say it. The general public are tired of hearing "but SF did this...", so realistically, they have to address them on a policy level, which isn't easy when they've never been in power here. General consensus is that they like being in opposition as it's the easier role, and anyone who pays attention to NI politics here, knows they're really just more of the same.

Last election, if they'd been able to run more candidates, they would have won more seats, but considering news since then about their TDs and Cllrs, kidnap, money laundering, anti-vax, in-party bullying, they may have been best not running more nutters.

The policy argument seems easily answered. When SF have a plan, ask where the funding will come from. The response - deathly silence or diversion to another subject.