Trans Am Bike Race / TransAm / TABR

Yes, the tyre change was at 'Tailwind Cyclists' in Pittsburg, so that would line up.

That is really interesting. What is the change in speed?
Having to use shit tyres could make a bit of difference over such a distance.
If so, he should stop again and get new ones.

If my maths is correct (it almost certainly isn't but let's have a stab anyway) CRR going from 0.00267 to 0.00543, which is a doubling the watts required to push the tyres is ~1mph speed difference at 150W.

So, up to maybe 20mi per day slower, assuming 20hrs riding.

Given the rate at which the gap closed though I find 'slow tyres' to be unlikely. What is more likely is fatigue and maybe him cracking a bit -because- of the tyre issue taking away a bit of his buffer. That's certainly possible.

Edit: ok, Hippy answered that ^

Re ferry: 13 hours to the last ferry. It is currently about 125 miles away from Kraig, Missing the last ferry means an 8 hour delay. Kraig has a route average speed of 10.4 mph (moving average of 13.8 mph). :))

I bet the ferry is playing on his mind more than the tyres :)

Be a bad time for a mechanical, Carbondale has a good bike shop though. 😅

Detour required though. More time lost.

Thanks for looking up and doing the maths.

1mph speed loss is massive. The tyres will feel really shit as well which, as you say, will be demoralising.

Just 23 miles now, but looks like Kraig stopped sooner so may start sooner too.

Not sure if Kraig had some problems with the ferry but his line looks slow just around that and before he stopped to rest. Evan probably aiming for first ferry. Guessing they might be back to 80 / 100 miles gap pretty soon.

Evan is crossing now. 60 mile gap.

50ish now. Plus this from FB:

Kraig is struggling to stay ahead of Evan since changing tires in Pittsburgh Kansas. He is afraid Evan will catch him before the finish! He is very stressed and tired when I talk to him.

Drama :)

Kraig will rue the day when he didn't listen to hippy about Contis.

#hippyisalwaysright

But yes, right now it looks as if Evan's closing in.

Hm, has De'anna checked into hospital in Cañon City? She's been there for more than a day. Hope she hasn't crashed and it's nothing serious?

She's in hospital for a cardio checkup. Hoping to return to the race.

Cheers.

I just looked at where she was in CC and realised it's a hospital.

Gap staying constant at 50-60 miles. They both stopped for about 4 hours last night, an hour shorter than they had been doing.
A massive duel is taking place and whoever makes a mistake, loses.

Hard to know who will be in better shape. Kraig has the lead and he only has to match Evan to win. Evan had the momentum, but that has flattened out now. Did it take too much out of Kraig to match Evan's speed? If so, he will falter in the next day or so and Evan will come through. Or is the effort sustainable? Then he has to sit on his lead.
At what stage do they pull the all-nighter? Save it for when they are within 500km, or try it at 900km and try to get a lead they can sit on...?
This will be interesting, but brutal for the participants.
Closest major ultra for a long time, probably since Steffen Streich's backtracking error in this in 2016.

Kraig has 650 miles to go so about 1000km - fireworks could happen at any point now.

oooo this is exciting.

De'anna's scratched. :(

Evan had a long stop. His tracker says on the side of the road, but could have been at the nearby Hazard Christian Academy. I don't think he's carrying any bivvy stuff. He's back moving now. Kraig yet to sleep. Perhaps they are both working strategies for the remaining 500 miles. Kraig was telling stories of Kentucky pitbull dogs (of course). Evan still looks fresh and that little aerobar pot he's carried cross country seems useful! We move into the final push stages.

1 Attachment

Damn shame Oliver!

Interesting. I wonder if that is Evan's last stop and he'll try to ride it in from here.
Kraig now exactly 100 miles ahead but he is sleeping and Evan riding, so it will come back down, most likely to close to the 50 miles it has been for the last couple of days.

Aout 850km to go (for Kraig / about 1,000km for Evan)

FWIW what I would do is I would have a distance in my head before the race from which I would aim to ride in without sleeping. It might be 500km - 800km depending on terrain, distance, etc, and not really depending on what others are doing. But I've never been in a position to try to win anything, and have misjudged these efforts before, so I'm not saying my strategy is the best one!

Would be good to good to know how someone with experience of winning these duels would approach it: @skinny - what would you do? Attack, or wait for the other guy to make the mistake?

It might be doable without a big sleep but I reckon they're still going to need some rest even if it's just powernaps so how much they try and get away with will be critical. Still some big climbs too.

Skinny would've already finished and he'd be on his second day of ice creams waiting for 2nd place.

Yes, I wonder how her cardio check-up came out.

Yeah I'm excited for another close finish like the year with Lael and Steffen. Kraig finished the 2018 race, so they both know the terrain coming. From 2017 Evan didn't stop much in his last 48hrs and neither did Kraig in 2018!