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I'm trying not to be a Carapaz fanboi*, but the fact that he came within seconds of beating Roglic at the Vuelta last year with a very, very weak team behind him, and seeing how he is riding at the Tour de Suisse, I think it'll be very clear after the Alps that he's Ineos' best chance of winning.
*and failing, I think he's a cold blooded killer of a rider.