EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

While it may seem smug, ill-informed or a Brexit gotcha it's difficult to deny the fact the anti-Brexit side of the argument has continually and repeatedly been the boy who cried wolf. It's a fucking open-goal for the right wing lunatics. No wonder progressivism is so under attack.

How do you mean? Large chunks of the finance industry have fucked off to the Netherlands, small and medium sized businesses are struggling to trade and many are closing down, trade with EU is something like 30% down, fishing is measurably fucked, farming is potentially fucked, manufacturing and automatize is literally planned to be fucked (according to the gov's own advisors) and I can't travel to most EU nations because I'm a third party national. Sounds to me like a the wolf is circling pretty closely.

I think these are really good points and we should be fighting to get this stuff into the public discourse but it's nigh on impossible when the narrative is so bombastic - and in my opinion a lot of that trash-talking has come from the side [supposedly] with the grey matter.

On the other hand, I'm making a mint replacing systems for the UK Gov that were previously shared with the EU so perhaps I should have voted leave in the first place.

Have to agree with you there. The sensible voices on both sides were drowned out by the hyperbole.

Em. I am not sure. The press is quite Tory and Brexit loving in England. The Cons have a 43% majority, in what sense is the Remain side being louder, bombastic and being more factually incorrect?

The BBC is sort of reporting on Brexit downsides, but not in much detail. There is more info to be had on more specialized / technical blogs etc. But most people won't follow those, fair enough.

It is really hard to know what to do, as people wanted different Brexits. And all those conflicted. And I am not sure if the new tradedeals won't clash with each other either...

Personally, bank transaction tax / land tax / reform of UK voting system to STV with an English parliament and a constitution for the "overall" parliament, investment in going green really finally this time, etc. But you could do that anyway, Brexit or not.

The EU is neither a scapegoat nor a magical fix, but now we seem to have nothing but more problems and no vision, with other countries not really needing the UK so it is a take what you get situation for trade deals.

Also, I called this - in this very thread. I said the govt would do whatever it needed to to keep the country moving and we would not be having a disaster. Was poo-poo'd on a lot.

Fair enough, you called it correctly - but, and it's a big but, the people who you are calling out got it wrong because they simply never considered that the government would do something so insane.

You could fill a container with pork thats' not fit for human consumption in Belarus, mark it as 'For UK', then drive straight through the whole of the EU and the UK border with zero checks and deliver said pork to a sausage plant in the UK.

Worth also mentioning that the gov continually insisted that safety and border standards would not be compromised.

Government advisers: In order to stay in business you're going to have to relocate a substantial part of your operations to the EU and set up a new business there, otherwise there's no practical way for you to trade with the EU.
Brexiteers: Everything's fine! Nothing to worry about. I'm all right, Jack.

I might start a business in the EU that looks to take advantage of UK companies that were forced to setup in the EU... Genius!

Seems like a pretty good business plan to me.

Em. I am not sure. The press is quite Tory and Brexit loving in England. The Cons have a 43% majority, in what sense is the Remain side being louder, bombastic and being more factually incorrect?

I think what we see now (43% majority) is the effect of the Remain side having previously done a poor job of making their point.

The fact that trade with the EU is down 30% doesn't scream problem to me, instead it shows just how inflexible the EU is as a trading block.

The sky didn't fall in as seemed to be promised by various hysterics pre ref.

The fact that trade with the EU is down 30% doesn't scream problem to me, instead it shows just how inflexible the EU is as a trading block.

Somehow the EU is getting their goods somewhere. Obviously it's not the UK so I doubt that 30% is coming back any time soon

Especially as it costs more to import from the UK now for a lot of EU countries. Not to mention having to pay ~20% VAT on UK products for the first time.

From the EU trade web site:

The same charges that apply to goods bought online from non-EU retailers now apply to online shopping from the UK. To avoid unwelcome surprises when you order online from the UK, always read the sales terms and conditions and the delivery information carefully.

Somehow the EU is getting their goods somewhere. Obviously it's not the UK so I doubt that 30% is coming back any time soon

I love the idea that the EU not buying things from the UK is the EU's problem. It's very Brexity. Utterly divorced from reality, and still drinking the Kool Aid.

The fact that trade with the EU is down 30% doesn't scream problem to me, instead it shows just how inflexible the EU is as a trading block

Yeah this is a really annoying take on it.

Trade is only ever completely free when there is a single market, and you can't have that without regulatory conformity (unless neither side cares about anything that might regulate what's sold in that market - which is the case in basically every developed market, as we don't like kids toys made of lead, food full of dangerous additives, etc).

Maybe you're just trying to wind people up, but this is just a logical consequence of not wanting to be part of that single market.

It's not as if the EU is uniquely inflexible - other places we sell to have similar rules on imports, but we just didn't use to have higher levels of trade.

The EU enjoying tarriff free trade with its own members and 50+ preferential trade deals with other countries that agree to meet its standards is utterly inflexible and totally their problem. 😂 A problem I wish the UK had.

Where does the 30% come from?

The Independent reports the ONS figures as significantly lower with a stress on the difficulties of disentangling the impact of COVID.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/brexit-trade-uk-eu-latest-b1853343.html

I believe that 23% figure is overall. ~30% is exports. I stand to be corrected.

Edit: I was wrong, they're just more recent figures that the ones I last saw.

Clearly the imposition of rigid "red lines" during the Brexit negotiation process was entirely due to the EU deciding to impose them. Oh no, hang on. It was the 'flexible' UK which imposed red lines which backed it into a corner. God bless flexibility. Dontcha just feel blessed to live in a land of flexibility?

The UK knew full there would be no exceptions as it's been in the EU and wouldn't grant any exceptions either.

27 countries, tight legal frameworks.

Everything offered by the EU like extensions, the backstop, all rejected.

Now...there are some easy wins on the NI protocol / sea border checks.

Sign up to EU plant and food standards, checks will soften significantly. But the "global Britain" brigade doesn't want to.

But the "global Britain" brigade doesn't want to.

The "flexible global Britain" brigade?

The backstop was thoroughly discredited by May's own AG.

I'm not sure how the UK could sign up for the EU's regulations on plant health without giving the ECJ jurisdiction over any breaches.

It's our choice though, innit - we want to reduce the (apparently intolerable) checks GB-NI then we sign up for SPS equivalence, with whatever governance is required.

Or we continue to posture and whine, and hope that if we do it with enough commitment then the EU will take pity on us and magic the hurt away.