Rugby

Watson is physically up to the carry but he's not a line out option and that's the big thing you need against SA. As an SA fan this is the team I'd least like Gatland to pick (i.e the one I think stands the best chance).

1 - Sutherland
2 - Owens
3 - Furlong
4 - Itoje
5 - Henderson
6 - Beirne
7 - Curry
8 - Faletau
9 - Davies
10 - Russell
11 - Louis Rees
12 - Henshaw
13 - Harris
14 - Duhan
15 - Hogg

Luckily there's no chance he'll go with the above

Sinkler would be on for 5 minutes, get wound up by a gritty SA pack, then see red.

I think that is a) harsh to say he was awful and b) was playing in an Eddie Jones game plan which didn’t suit his (or many others) game plans

He's also not the best scrummager and Kitshoff is the best loosehead in the world so you need a really solid 3.

I could downgrade awful to average. However, one of the penalties he gave away in the 6N was so brain dead it was unreal. That alone would be enough for me to never pick him. It was so egregiously stupid.

That's Furlong backed up by Porter then, which I agree with, not only because I'm Irish.

If you are not picking players for giving away one stupid penalty, then you are going to have a very empty teamsheet.

I wouldn't have Hill anywhere near the starting test team, but there have been far worst tourists than him.

Yeah agree that's the best combo to combat Kitshoff (who will play close to the full 80). With Beast's retirement the SA prop stocks at 1 aren't as strong as they were (they're still stacked at tighthead though). If Kitshoff gets injured or misses the series it's a big loss to SA.

In general SA are pretty covered depth wise but 1, 8 and 10 the drop off from Kitshoff, Vermeulen and Pollard is huge.

On a more positive note, looking forward to seeing Simmonds coming off the bench at 60 mins on hard fast pitches

Sadly I think he'll only play the midweek games. I agree he'd be a good bench option for the Tests though.

I guess he will have to impress in the warm ups, but as one of only 3 specialist 8s, I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some test minutes at some point.

Also happy to see LCD, I think he is pushing Owens closely.

Sinkler is a decent scrummeger. I can only thing it is on trust like Steve com says

Yeah Sinckler has really come on with his scrummaging in the last year, I think it is purely a temperament thing.

From memory wasn't he widely hailed as a great tourist last time and played a big role off the bench in all tests? Gatland clearly trusted him then... other than that one example against AWJ is his temperament really in question these days? His red for swearing at the ref was stupid but unlucky, I'm pretty sure Farrell/Biggar and many others have got away with far worse...

I'm sure it's set piece related. Lions scrum got roasted in 09 and it cost them the 1st test. They can't afford to give away scrum penalties especially late in the game if it's close.

There's a lot to unpick in this comment. Firstly, "decent opposition = not the 6 nations" - presumably the inference is that the Rugby Championship teams are the benchmark for international quality? Let's look at that:

SA vs Wales last 5 matches: SA 1 - 4 Wales
SA vs Ireland last 5 matches: SA 2 - 3 Ireland
SA vs England last 5 matches: SA 3 - 2 England
Aus vs Wales last 5: Aus 3 - 2 Wales
Aus vs England last 5: Aus 0 - 5 England
Aus vs Ireland last 5: Aus 1 - 4 Ireland

I'm not going to bother with NZ (we know they're head and shoulders above, albeit Ireland and England have had as much success against them recently as SA) and Argentina/Scotland/Italy/France, but to suggest that Southern Hemisphere is currently significantly superior to Northern doesn't hold much water when the recent head to heads look like they do.

Billy never shows up against decent opposition. NZ semi final 2019. Saracens vs Leinster 2019. 3 man of the match performances in 2016 grand slam etc...

AWJ would be uncapped if South African. Having won 4 out of the last 5 matches against them, I'm not sure many would agree with you there...

The RC teams are quite clearly the benchmark for international rugby, 8 World Cups to 1 is pretty damming.

The recent record is heavily skewed by most of the games being played in the NH. Granted AUS and SA have had some shocking periods in the last few years which has helped as well. Look at the historic head to heads.

I assume you watch SH rugby regularly? Currie Cup, Super Rugby, Mitre Cup, Rugby Championship etc or do you just watch when the NH teams play them? The level of talent which doesn't even make it to international level is scary. Just look at the amount of average SH players who tear up the Premiership and Pro 14 year on year.

There's no point arguing with you on Billy and AWJ I've watched and played enough Rugby in the last 30 years to know how I feel about them both and their respective abilities.

Historically? Sure. Currently? Far less clear.

I watch the RC and enjoyed the Aotearoa last year. Super Rugby is fun when it gets to the pointy end. I make no claims beyond that. I watch lots of the Guinness Prem so have a good sense of SA's strength in depth. That said, having watched your Pro-14 teams I'm not sure the strength in depth is infinite... ;)

Are you calling 3-0 SA at this point? I'll happily take a charity bet against that if you've the courage of your convictions?

Certainly confident of 2-0 after 2 tests. Can see The Lions winning a consolation third test like in 09. If Pollard or Vermeulen miss it then it's much more even. Happy to stick a tenner into a charity of your choice though if the Lions take it.

Is Vermeulen looking his age yet?

I'll happily see your £10 that it won't be 2-0 after two tests?

Maturing nicely. Best player in the SA domestic competition in the last year. Be nice for him to face the Lions again after getting bumped by Andy Powell as a youngster when playing for WP in one of the warm up games last time. Frans Steyn also has the unique opportunity to complete a double of 2 WC wins and 2 Lions series wins.

Yeah why not, it's all for charity!

Excellent, consider it shaken-upon. My expectation - and hope - is 1-1 going into the final test....

Cool.

As I only really get into the Lions once every 12 years 1-1 will be far too tense for me going into a decider. I very much hope the pressure is off by then.