COVID-19 vaccines

All programs are subject to similar constraints.

No, the US seems to have much more supply than us. More than demand in a lot places.

Re 11 weeks. It works up until a point- that point is the interesting part. If your point of supply is as big a factor as you think, then we cannot expand to cover effectively.

The expansion has already happened. See how big the pink bars (second doses) on the right hand half of this graph are.

Obviously I can't know the future, but we've consistently had 300-500k doses available per day for several months, and if that continues we'll have no problem keeping up with second doses, although first doses have now slowed to a trickle.

Further, our reopening up has been predicated on first dose number, with predominant mixing in non-vaccinated age groups. This leads to a good assumption that before we get a chance to roll out vaccines to that age range, we will repeat a spike of spread.

All over 50s (who want to) have had at least one dose, and everyone in the most vulnerable groups has had both doses. Absolutely there'll be more spread but the consequences will be very different, though obviously it sucks if you're a younger person (like me) and get a serious case.

(And can we stop this shite about one dose meaning "not vaccinated"? The efficacy numbers for a single dose are better than we might have hoped for from any vaccine a few months back)