COVID-19 vaccines

Our vaccine rates are exponentially growing.

Looks linear to me, but you're right that those handling distribution absolutely need to ensure incoming stocks meet second doses. And of course there's no guarantee shipments will always come. Geopolitics and manufacturing problems are both realities we've seen in the rollout already.

equally all three of the major medical journals in this country that I subscribe to ran stories last week stating the exact opposite.

Fair. And of course there was the UCL report last week that said we are probably there now, which was immediately criticized by others (probably in those three reports you mention). It should be noted that ZOE (probably) have access to more data than almost anyone else in the UK on this, so that's something of a reassurance when it comes to their reports.

I’d rather err cautious since I’ve spent the past year dealing with the consequences of not.

This is an absolutely legitimate stance. I err on being optimistic with this shit to keep myself from going insane. But I'm not blindly optimistic. There's lots of hopeful news coming from experts which needs to be weighted against the less hopeful reports.