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Re 11 weeks. It works up until a point- that point is the interesting part. If your point of supply is as big a factor as you think, then we cannot expand to cover effectively.
What does this mean? The number of vaccines available - by all reports - will continue to increase over the coming months (and years). Additionally, what does "effectively" mean?
I just don’t think we’re where the public thinks we are, and this is a problem.
The reality, I suppose, is no one knows where we are. You have insights I don't so I'm certainly not going to dismiss your experiences or knowledge. However, there are other people with other specialities saying very different. Tim Spector reported last week that we're likely approaching herd immunity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD7V26exJuE
Further, our reopening up has been predicated on first dose number, with predominant mixing in non-vaccinated age groups. This leads to a good assumption that before we get a chance to roll out vaccines to that age range, we will repeat a spike of spread.
I'm sure you know this, but no one has claimed this isn't the case. The question is who gets those infections, how widely they are able to spread, and what sort of strain they do (or don't) put on to the NHS. The evidence shows that, as things have opened up, cases have plateaued and/or gone up in some groups (younger people), but continued to drop in at risk groups. The likely (and reportedly statistically significant) cause of this is the vaccine. Hopefully this trend continues as the easing of restrictions continues.
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What does this mean?
Our vaccine rates are exponentially growing.
I’m not arguing that there is a supply issue, but logically if we have an exponential expansion in 1st dose and an additional requirement to vaccinate the second dose, how does our ramp up manage and at which point is there a slow down in first dose. -
Tim Spector reported last week that we're likely approaching herd immunity.
equally all three of medical journals in this country that I subscribe to ran stories last week suggesting the exact opposite. (Actually I think one was a the new scientist)
Who knows who’s right.
I’d rather err cautious since I’ve spent the past year dealing with the consequences of not.
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All programs are subject to similar constraints.
Re 11 weeks. It works up until a point- that point is the interesting part. If your point of supply is as big a factor as you think, then we cannot expand to cover effectively.
If we can, and my assumptions so far have been that the people in charge have factored that into it.
In general- a see my posts previously- I have huge amounts of faith in a system I work in. I just don’t think we’re where the public thinks we are, and this is a problem.
Further, our reopening up has been predicated on first dose number, with predominant mixing in non-vaccinated age groups. This leads to a good assumption that before we get a chance to roll out vaccines to that age range, we will repeat a spike of spread.