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The UK rollout is supply constrained. The distribution seems fine, or at least adequate for the volume of supply we have to distribute.
All programs are subject to similar constraints.
Re 11 weeks. It works up until a point- that point is the interesting part. If your point of supply is as big a factor as you think, then we cannot expand to cover effectively.
If we can, and my assumptions so far have been that the people in charge have factored that into it.
In general- a see my posts previously- I have huge amounts of faith in a system I work in. I just don’t think we’re where the public thinks we are, and this is a problem.
Further, our reopening up has been predicated on first dose number, with predominant mixing in non-vaccinated age groups. This leads to a good assumption that before we get a chance to roll out vaccines to that age range, we will repeat a spike of spread.
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Further, our reopening up has been predicated on first dose number, with predominant mixing in non-vaccinated age groups. This leads to a good assumption that before we get a chance to roll out vaccines to that age range, we will repeat a spike of spread.
Worrying. EVERY pub in sight was rammed yesterday.
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Re 11 weeks. It works up until a point- that point is the interesting part. If your point of supply is as big a factor as you think, then we cannot expand to cover effectively.
What does this mean? The number of vaccines available - by all reports - will continue to increase over the coming months (and years). Additionally, what does "effectively" mean?
I just don’t think we’re where the public thinks we are, and this is a problem.
The reality, I suppose, is no one knows where we are. You have insights I don't so I'm certainly not going to dismiss your experiences or knowledge. However, there are other people with other specialities saying very different. Tim Spector reported last week that we're likely approaching herd immunity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pD7V26exJuE
Further, our reopening up has been predicated on first dose number, with predominant mixing in non-vaccinated age groups. This leads to a good assumption that before we get a chance to roll out vaccines to that age range, we will repeat a spike of spread.
I'm sure you know this, but no one has claimed this isn't the case. The question is who gets those infections, how widely they are able to spread, and what sort of strain they do (or don't) put on to the NHS. The evidence shows that, as things have opened up, cases have plateaued and/or gone up in some groups (younger people), but continued to drop in at risk groups. The likely (and reportedly statistically significant) cause of this is the vaccine. Hopefully this trend continues as the easing of restrictions continues.
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All programs are subject to similar constraints.
No, the US seems to have much more supply than us. More than demand in a lot places.
Re 11 weeks. It works up until a point- that point is the interesting part. If your point of supply is as big a factor as you think, then we cannot expand to cover effectively.
The expansion has already happened. See how big the pink bars (second doses) on the right hand half of this graph are.
Obviously I can't know the future, but we've consistently had 300-500k doses available per day for several months, and if that continues we'll have no problem keeping up with second doses, although first doses have now slowed to a trickle.
Further, our reopening up has been predicated on first dose number, with predominant mixing in non-vaccinated age groups. This leads to a good assumption that before we get a chance to roll out vaccines to that age range, we will repeat a spike of spread.
All over 50s (who want to) have had at least one dose, and everyone in the most vulnerable groups has had both doses. Absolutely there'll be more spread but the consequences will be very different, though obviously it sucks if you're a younger person (like me) and get a serious case.
(And can we stop this shite about one dose meaning "not vaccinated"? The efficacy numbers for a single dose are better than we might have hoped for from any vaccine a few months back)
amey
grams
The second dose totals tally closely to the first dose totals from ~11 weeks ago, as expected. So if you want to predict the number of "fully vaccinated" on a given date just look at the first dose total from 11 weeks before.
The UK rollout is supply constrained. The distribution seems fine, or at least adequate for the volume of supply we have to distribute.