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I believe you are.
There is zero chance of Sean Bailey, or, any other right wing candidate passing 50% of first choice votes. There are at least three swivel-eyed loons who will peel off some anti-bike/anti-Sadiq votes.
Depending upon the weather on the day, which will affect turnout,
Sadiq has a good chance to win on first choice votes.
My Green first choice vote registers discontent with some of the policies of the last five years, but my second choice vote indicates that a Labour London Mayor is much better option for all Londoners than anyother realistic alternative.
mespilus
sohi
I might be missing something, but the booklet explains that a mayoral candidate receiving over 50% of ‘first choice’ votes wins. So if the cycling vote were split between green and labour, it follows that an anti-cycling candidate could win simply by having a more focused electorate.