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If bailey gets more than 50% then it's irrelevant whether the left vote is split.
Also if bailey does get that vote share, the political commentary of London is way off, khan is probably over 50% but a first vote green and second khan makes sense and is low risk. With the benefit of course of letting khan know that green politics are vote winners.
Backstop
I might be missing something, but the booklet explains that a mayoral candidate receiving over 50% of ‘first choice’ votes wins. So if the cycling vote were split between green and labour, it follows that an anti-cycling candidate could win simply by having a more focused electorate.