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apc-
Cheers!
That link doesn't work for me, but the gist was:
- Effect of first lockdown, accurately forecast
- Effects of later lockdowns, not accurately forecast because firms adapted
- Public finances better than predicted, and unemployment lower
- Therefore (maybe) such growth, very success once vaccination complete and everything reopened.
- Effect of first lockdown, accurately forecast
useless
I think we're in an anticipating-higher-inflation situation, which isn't quite the same thing.
For example, from last month: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/rising-rates
and, possibly paywalled:
https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/03/31/british-firms-are-adapting-to-lockdowns-and-confounding-forecasters