Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Was having similar thoughts yesterday. The guardian has graphs for England by age (0-19, 20-59, 60+) which are handy

I’m going to call it. I reckon the number of daily cases has bottomed out and it’s going back up from here. The curve looked like it changed immediately after the schools went back. I reckon that’s been the driver.

That kind of effect wasn't unexpected. The question amongst the statisticians on Twitter (Spiegelhalter et al) is whether the plateau is due to the lateral flow testing at secondary schools or the knock on effects of schools going back (e.g. some parents now able to go into work), or a combination of both.

(In other words, without the increased lateral flow testing would the rate would have continued to fall even if schools had gone back in?)

With most secondary pupils going back to school and being tested 2-3 times a week there hasn't been a dramatic rise in positive results, the figures are still 7.5% down week on week (https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/) and they've been back in for 2 weeks.

Without a dramatic rise, and a natural break for 2 and a half weeks coming up (Easter holidays) it looks like it was the right choice to make.

Any further effect of schools will be swamped by the next effects of the upcoming increase in mixing:-

• March 29th - people can mix in private gardens and meet up in public, outdoor sports
  
• April 12th - outdoor drinking/eating at pubs/restaurants and self catering accommodation opening up
  
  

The biggest driver for virus suppression is the fact we've vaccinated (1st dose) half the adult population. That seems to be the differentiator between us and other European countries.

As others have said, the biggest numbers to watch now are the hospital admissions and the mechanical ventilation numbers.