-
Yes, similar thoughts to me re:Billy however it's a fine balance to strike between having enough power to gain a degree of set-piece parity up front with enough speed and breakdown nouse to get one over on the Boks at the tackle area.
Pasty_Spumante-
Yeah ultimately it's the tight 5 who need to really front up in the set piece. Honestly matching SA fire with fire is such a stupid tactic and one SA relish. I've watched pretty much every SA test for the last 20 years and a they hate a fast and loose game, they lose more than they win of those. When you take them on upfront it gives them confidence as they know they can handle it.
However, irrespective of what style you play the key really is ruck ball both securing it quickly for the Lions and slowing it down for SA. Deny the SA power runners quick ball and they are a lot easier to stop. However, there's not a lot you can do to stop Cheslin Kolbe at the moment though which is what makes this current Bok side so dangerous.
Saffronspokes
South Africa love playing Billy, Duane Vermeulen has dominated him every match they've played. He's meat and drink for an SA pack and one of the most overrated players on the planet.
You don't beat South Africa by trying to dominate them physically, it doesn't work (it's why they have such a good record against England). You beat them by getting enough parity up front to play a really fast game (Australia always cause the Boks issues). Key to beating the Boks is quick ball, so a pack which can hit and clear rucks and get round the park is crucial. They don't play with a traditional 7 and rely on Vermeulen, Marx and Kitshoff to jackal ball (all who are great but not the most mobile) so a good 7 can cause them issues. Pocock cost the Boks the the 2011 WC by killing them at the breakdown, aided by some awful officiating by Bryce Lawrence. They're also reliant on Pollard being fit as he's streets ahead of their other 10 options. Jantjes isn't test standard and Bosch and Willemse are too green. I could see them returning to Morne Steyn (has had a very good domestic season) if Pollard is not fit. There would be a lovely symmetry for him to slot a series clinching penalty again.
The problem for the Lions is that only a handful of players (Curry and Hogg) would make the SA team. The thing that gives them a chance is the fact the Boks haven't played since the WC final and the tour is going to be played in the NH.
As a Bok fan this is the team who'd cause them the most issues.
1 - Sutherland
2 - Owens
3 - Furlong
4 - Itoje
5 - Beirne
6 -Curry
7 - Tipuric
8 - Faletau
9 - Davies
10 - Russell
11 - Van Der Merwe
12 - Henshaw
13 - Ringrose
14 - Rees-Zamitt
15 - Hogg
They'll love it if Gatland picks Alun Wyn, Farrell, Billy, George etc
For the Boks they'll likely be fairly similar to the WC and go
1 - Kitshoff
2 - Marx / Mbonambi
3 - Malherbe
4 - Etzebeth
5 -De Jager
6 - Kolisi
7 - Du Toit (if fit)
8 - Vermeulen
9 - De Klerk
10 - Pollard
11 - Nkosi
12 - De Allende
13 - Am
14 - Kolbe
15 - Le Roux
Personally I'd prefer Francois Steyn at 15 (he's back playing great rugby with a smile and can still slot them from 60m with ease) and Nyakane at 3. The tour comes a year early for Aphelele Fassi at 15 and Wandisile Simelane at 13 but look out for them in the rumoured SA A warm up game. They'll also almost certainly still go for the 6-2 split on the bench and rely on their immense depth in the pack.