-
South Africa love playing Billy, Duane Vermeulen has dominated him every match they've played. He's meat and drink for an SA pack and one of the most overrated players on the planet.
You don't beat South Africa by trying to dominate them physically, it doesn't work (it's why they have such a good record against England). You beat them by getting enough parity up front to play a really fast game (Australia always cause the Boks issues). Key to beating the Boks is quick ball, so a pack which can hit and clear rucks and get round the park is crucial. They don't play with a traditional 7 and rely on Vermeulen, Marx and Kitshoff to jackal ball (all who are great but not the most mobile) so a good 7 can cause them issues. Pocock cost the Boks the the 2011 WC by killing them at the breakdown, aided by some awful officiating by Bryce Lawrence. They're also reliant on Pollard being fit as he's streets ahead of their other 10 options. Jantjes isn't test standard and Bosch and Willemse are too green. I could see them returning to Morne Steyn (has had a very good domestic season) if Pollard is not fit. There would be a lovely symmetry for him to slot a series clinching penalty again.
The problem for the Lions is that only a handful of players (Curry and Hogg) would make the SA team. The thing that gives them a chance is the fact the Boks haven't played since the WC final and the tour is going to be played in the NH.
As a Bok fan this is the team who'd cause them the most issues.
1 - Sutherland
2 - Owens
3 - Furlong
4 - Itoje
5 - Beirne
6 -Curry
7 - Tipuric
8 - Faletau
9 - Davies
10 - Russell
11 - Van Der Merwe
12 - Henshaw
13 - Ringrose
14 - Rees-Zamitt
15 - HoggThey'll love it if Gatland picks Alun Wyn, Farrell, Billy, George etc
For the Boks they'll likely be fairly similar to the WC and go
1 - Kitshoff
2 - Marx / Mbonambi
3 - Malherbe
4 - Etzebeth
5 -De Jager
6 - Kolisi
7 - Du Toit (if fit)
8 - Vermeulen
9 - De Klerk
10 - Pollard
11 - Nkosi
12 - De Allende
13 - Am
14 - Kolbe
15 - Le RouxPersonally I'd prefer Francois Steyn at 15 (he's back playing great rugby with a smile and can still slot them from 60m with ease) and Nyakane at 3. The tour comes a year early for Aphelele Fassi at 15 and Wandisile Simelane at 13 but look out for them in the rumoured SA A warm up game. They'll also almost certainly still go for the 6-2 split on the bench and rely on their immense depth in the pack.
Saffronspokes-
Yes, similar thoughts to me re:Billy however it's a fine balance to strike between having enough power to gain a degree of set-piece parity up front with enough speed and breakdown nouse to get one over on the Boks at the tackle area.
-
Aphelele Fassi at 15 and Wandisile Simelane at 13
Can't wait to see both of them play for the Boks, Fassi looked absolutely brilliant in the last Super Rugby tournament and Simelane was on fire in SRU.
Pasty_Spumante
Prole.
I may be being one-eyed here, but I think your pack is missing a few English players - if you're going solely on form this week then I'd argue Curry and Billy should start, and for a pack to take on the Boks up front I'm just not sure Watson and Tips are big/abrasive enough, much as I love them both as players. Probably on the plane. Falatau in with a shout too for 6 and 8.
No arguments with the backline albeit I don't think for a moment Gatland will be starting Russell. I would. But I definitely expect Farrell to be starting, either 10 or 12. Not sure how/if the Russell - Farrell axis works but it would certainly be interesting. Farrell's defensive performance at 12 was massive this week, led the line and smashed everything in his path - with legal tackle technique! Wonders never cease.