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I may be being one-eyed here, but I think your pack is missing a few English players - if you're going solely on form this week then I'd argue Curry and Billy should start, and for a pack to take on the Boks up front I'm just not sure Watson and Tips are big/abrasive enough, much as I love them both as players. Probably on the plane. Falatau in with a shout too for 6 and 8.
No arguments with the backline albeit I don't think for a moment Gatland will be starting Russell. I would. But I definitely expect Farrell to be starting, either 10 or 12. Not sure how/if the Russell - Farrell axis works but it would certainly be interesting. Farrell's defensive performance at 12 was massive this week, led the line and smashed everything in his path - with legal tackle technique! Wonders never cease.
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I think Curry was great at the weekend hence his bench inclusion for flanker/8 cover.I hear you completely mind though Watson seems to have such explosive power that belies his 'modest' size. It'd be interesting to see 'metres made after contact' stats etc to get a better comparison. My worry with BV (and he's really pulled his finger out the last 2 games) is that if his, admittedly often highly effective, one dimension of carrying hard, dominating physically and tying in defenders is nullified he doesn't add a huge amount beyond that. Standers stats for metres/carries etc etc are MILES ahead of every back row player in the 6N (couldn't believe it) and whilst I appreciate that stats are born out of game-plan etc they can't be ignored. Tipuric is just so bloody good at everything and links forwards/backs so well (and is a proven test match Lion) he's hard to leave out but if your suggestions (Faletau etc) transpired I would be neither surprised nor disappointed. Yes, said it last week; Farrell's defence the last two games has been superb. Young's showed me that he actually can move the ball directly and quickly from the breakdown and he looked so much better doing that and it meant that his occasional steps and snipes caught the defence off guard and were more effective.
@c00ps, yes, Henshaw, North....oh and Faz at 10.....Gatland's wet dream! -
South Africa love playing Billy, Duane Vermeulen has dominated him every match they've played. He's meat and drink for an SA pack and one of the most overrated players on the planet.
You don't beat South Africa by trying to dominate them physically, it doesn't work (it's why they have such a good record against England). You beat them by getting enough parity up front to play a really fast game (Australia always cause the Boks issues). Key to beating the Boks is quick ball, so a pack which can hit and clear rucks and get round the park is crucial. They don't play with a traditional 7 and rely on Vermeulen, Marx and Kitshoff to jackal ball (all who are great but not the most mobile) so a good 7 can cause them issues. Pocock cost the Boks the the 2011 WC by killing them at the breakdown, aided by some awful officiating by Bryce Lawrence. They're also reliant on Pollard being fit as he's streets ahead of their other 10 options. Jantjes isn't test standard and Bosch and Willemse are too green. I could see them returning to Morne Steyn (has had a very good domestic season) if Pollard is not fit. There would be a lovely symmetry for him to slot a series clinching penalty again.
The problem for the Lions is that only a handful of players (Curry and Hogg) would make the SA team. The thing that gives them a chance is the fact the Boks haven't played since the WC final and the tour is going to be played in the NH.
As a Bok fan this is the team who'd cause them the most issues.
1 - Sutherland
2 - Owens
3 - Furlong
4 - Itoje
5 - Beirne
6 -Curry
7 - Tipuric
8 - Faletau
9 - Davies
10 - Russell
11 - Van Der Merwe
12 - Henshaw
13 - Ringrose
14 - Rees-Zamitt
15 - HoggThey'll love it if Gatland picks Alun Wyn, Farrell, Billy, George etc
For the Boks they'll likely be fairly similar to the WC and go
1 - Kitshoff
2 - Marx / Mbonambi
3 - Malherbe
4 - Etzebeth
5 -De Jager
6 - Kolisi
7 - Du Toit (if fit)
8 - Vermeulen
9 - De Klerk
10 - Pollard
11 - Nkosi
12 - De Allende
13 - Am
14 - Kolbe
15 - Le RouxPersonally I'd prefer Francois Steyn at 15 (he's back playing great rugby with a smile and can still slot them from 60m with ease) and Nyakane at 3. The tour comes a year early for Aphelele Fassi at 15 and Wandisile Simelane at 13 but look out for them in the rumoured SA A warm up game. They'll also almost certainly still go for the 6-2 split on the bench and rely on their immense depth in the pack.
Pasty_Spumante
Saffronspokes
So- weekend round up. Wales couldn't do a lot more than they did against a hapless Italy but LRZ is 'on the plane' I'd say and will have a good crack at a starting spot. Adams not grounding the ball over the try line was lazy and wouldn't have gone unnoticed and it could be North's resurgence as a 13, who can play wing, that ultimately means he misses out. After benching behind George for the 3 NZ tests, Ken Owens probably favourite for the starting Hooker spot now too.
My Lions 1st Test Squad were it tomorrow
Reps: R Sutherland, G Turner, K Sinkler, T Beirne, T Curry, O Farrell, B Youngs, G North
There are some absolute squad definites of course inc AWJ but who will be the 3rd fly-half? Russell goes because he's largely been in great form for a couple of seasons and offers soothing very different to any other option. Farrell goes as he's a Gatland favourite and plays 10 and 12. Then it's a choice between Sexton, Ford and Biggar who've all had their moments this championship. I guess it depends how Gatland sees the team playing but I can see an argument for any of the 3 at the expense of the other 2.