• Again the problem of hunkering down too long to be "better safe than sorry" will likely cause more deaths due to the ongoing detrimental effects on mental and physical health, and (more specifically) the austerity it creates than are saved due to avoiding Covid-19 deaths.

    I see a lot of people say this but is there any data/studies to suggest it's true? I feel like a lot of people (Telegraph types) repeat this as gospel but are not actually informed in any way

    Edit: I mean obviously it is true by default that at some point lockdown is worse than COVID. But I'm interested to know where that point is, because I don't think we're even close to it yet (lockdown would have to be pretty bad to be worse than 100,000s dead)

  • Austerity causes deaths. There are some links to non-pandemic specific research from here:-

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_government_austerity_programme#Mortality

    "
    In 2017, the Royal Society of Medicine said that government austerity decisions in health and social care were likely to have resulted in 30,000 deaths in England and Wales in 2015.
    "

    Those were funding/policy decisions not in a time of a pandemic. Do you think it's better or worse during a pandemic? How many excess/preventable deaths have there been and will there be due to much of the healthcare system being shutdown?

  • I understand the reasoning. I'm just wondering if there's any data/cost-benefit analysis on the subject yet.

    Suicides are often quoted as a consequence of lockdown, for example, but it seems to be the case that the suicide rate actually went down around the start of the pandemic. But this doesn't seem to stop Tories from using as an excuse to call for opening up ASAP.

  • How many excess/preventable deaths have there been and will there be due to much of the healthcare system being shutdown?

    In theory if you keep the rest of society shutdown then healthcare might do better. When there are fewer Covid patients hospitals will be able to get back to the usual heart disease and cancer treatment.

    One measure for a successful relaxing of lockdown is hospitals are busy with Covid patients but not swamped. In that situation regular healthcare suffers again.

    It seems likely that we have a new endemic disease. Perhaps we need to increase the number of hospitals/beds/doctors/nurses/etc so we can do the pre-Covid healthcare as well? It will of course take lots of money and a decade to do that.

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