Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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  • Ok but I'm not sure I follow.
    Surely Deaths> Hospitalisation> Infections, granted somewhere in that needs to be long term effects but I still think death is the most important metric?

  • As a business they can still contact their local councillors to ask for an explanation why shopkeepers are being tasked with enforcing public order.
    They could also lobby their local Ward police liason committee to get the pcsos to do their job.

  • Aye, I think it was the face to face "intimidation" (wether that was just perceived or intentional) that threw her, she just makes the coffee and there wasn't a manager in at the time. I'd like to think it would get followed up, anyway.

  • @Greenbank @jellybaby - yes you are probably right, especially if we start having nice, spring weekends instead of constant rain.

  • I hadn't considered that she was 'just' an employee.
    Hopefully the Manager supports her and contacts the Council & Police.

  • Jus been chatting by phone to a distant neighbour. (Remarkable guy, show up at a Wests, when we're allowed and I'll eulogise him at length).
    Well into his '80s and a partener in her late '70s. He recognised a couple of years ago he was no longer able to prune his majestic Newton Wonder apple tree, and I've been doing it for them.
    A years worth of self-isolation has ruined his remaining stamina and muscle strength, as he gave up his daily walk to his local high street and attending social events.

    His generation is rightfuly proud of helping to build a better country after 1945, but some of them are loathe to request help. If you've got a mature neighbour, once some of the Covid restrictions are lifted, see if you can lend a hand. If nothing else, you are bound to get some good stories from their vast memories.

  • Re-opening all school years for 3 weeks still sounds like useless as a scientific experiment to me, as a political experiment sure, it may be fine.

    If they cannot deduce from all the past data what the transmission vectors are AND how to weigh them in detail (primary? post primary?) they can't do it now either. If they want to number crunch they can use vaccination details and throw those in the big computer with the data from end of last year, right?

    Feels more to me like a "ooh what can we get away with" experiment. Well, not in NI, gradual reopening.

  • (From the PM's statement in the HoP.)

    8th March - schools back in

    29th March - outdoor organised sport (tennis, 5-a-side, basketball, etc) - end of "Stay at home"

    12th April - Nonessential retail, indoor gyms + pools, holiday lets (individual households), pubs and restaurants outdoors (no curfew and no need for 'substantial meal' with alcohol), libraries

    17th May - 30 people can meet up outside, Rule-of-6/Two-families can meet indoors in a pub, Fans back in stadiums (possibly limited capacity though), Cinemas, Theatres (Again, possible capacity limits)

    21st June - hopefully the final stage of relaxations

    5 weeks between each stage (if you ignore 29th March when most schools will break for Easter, although my daughter's school finishes 31st March) - 4 weeks for the effect to be seen in the figures (tests -> hospitalisations -> deaths) and 1 week advance notice

  • Interesting that the final step is before the planned finish of adult vaccinations. Maybe they expect takeup to have fallen away by then given how it is starting to drop as the cohorts get younger.
    The jump in the last couple of steps seems a bit optimistic to me - 5 weeks after you can meet friends in a pub for the first time to full-blown bangface events. Let's hope we get close to it though.

  • One specific exemption was nightclubs, they won't be back on 21st June. I guess music festivals will be out for 2021 too.

    Misheard it. Here's the direct quote:-

    "We will reopen everything up to and including nightclubs", says Johnson.

    He says he hopes to lift restrictions on large events and performances "potentially using testing to reduce the risk of infection".

  • ^ Does not sound too bad but not sure still re schools.

    Of course more people get vaccinated as time goes on, so perhaps it works out.

    But still not sure school wise it to sensible as most parents won't be vaccinated by April (at least not in NI though perhaps some parts of the UK it's going faster) ?

  • My 11yo daughter (Y6) is really *really* happy about going back to school. She's desperate to see all her friends again. There's been a fair bit of bumping into people in the local parks over the last few weeks but that's just not cutting it for her. Nor are seemingly endless Zoom calls she has with her friends whilst they play Roblox/etc.

    I'm happy too (understatement). It'll give me 3 weeks to finish off my job and then I've got the summer off with everything opening up again. Pools and gym open from 12th April hopefully and so I can use the time to get properly fit and find a new job.

    Might not even have to tweak holiday plans. Being able to sit indoors in pubs/restaurants is a fucking dream right now.

  • The carnage when pubs/restaurants open properly...

  • Now what is happening the first week of may...

  • Not sure anyone has disputed that numbers will go up but it’s also not the most significant part.

    What is concerning is there seems to be a lack of published data on those who have been vaccinated and how that correlated to hospitalisations and deaths.

  • It's exactly what happened here from September. Schools contribute massively to community transmission, so what are we going to do? Reopen schools with loads of kids mixing indoors.

    But adults won't be able to do that at all for another three months.

  • I bet a crisp fiver, donated to the forum, that the 17th May date is secretly intended to be brought forward so that the government can spin it and claim it as some sort of victory and that they have overdelivered on their plan.

  • Too soon.

  • this timeline seems so weird still, so basically I cant see my parents (otherside of the country) until May?

  • Apples and oranjes.

    Fewer than 1M have had a jab in .nl to date, and that would have obviously been even lower when they actually opened the schools.

    UK is on track to have over 20M having at least one jab by the time that schools open.

    That's why I think that rates won't climb drastically (they'll probably plateau or continue to drop - but more slowly).

  • No. March 29th.

    Although you can't meet them indoors until May.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56149494/page/2

    "
    29 March

    • Outdoor gatherings of up to six people or two households allowed, including meeting in private gardens
    • Outdoor sports facilities such as tennis and basketball courts and outdoor swimming pools allowed to reopen; organised outdoor sports can resume
    • Stay at home order ends but people encouraged to stay local wherever they can
    • Work from home wherever possible
    • No overseas travel.
      "
  • my daughter's school finishes 31st March

    1st April for mine.

    29th March - outdoor organised sport ... end of "Stay at home"

    I've just made a note in my diary the week before to book a swim for the 29th.

  • but thats outside only right?

  • 12th April holiday lets open, implied is you can therefore travel? But, can't go and stay with them/see them inside until May... but you could go and stay locally and see them outside every day.

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Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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