Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Now reading on friends feeds that some doctors surgery have stopped giving vaccines as they are so far ahead.. No one seems to say which surgery tho.

Looks like a more cautious and sensible release of restrictions this time round.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/21/johnsons-route-out-of-covid-lockdown-loved-ones-and-schools-first?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Quite right too.

All school children on the same day isn’t cautious.

Get a sense this is tactical - an optimistic 'opening up' agenda to be laid out to give some hope to the masses ASAP- and then delayed and blamed on the rise from schools opening, or it's just a massive test to see whether the inevitable high case rates won't convert over to a large spike in deaths due to the vaccine rollout?

What would you do?

More important years coming back first to enable lateral flow tests to be done effectively.

Teachers vaccinated.

Mask wearing in class for older years.

Why should teachers be vaccinated ahead of shop workers?
I think mask wearing isn’t a terrible idea, they could announce that.
Is lateral flow testing on that scale viable?

Why should teachers be vaccinated ahead of shop workers?

Because most essential shops have protocols in place to limit transmission, whereas the evidence from earlier this winter is that school age children are a significant factor in driving up infection rates. It’s also much harder for teachers to take steps to limit the risk of transmission as they are in classrooms with children for significant periods of time.

Why should teachers be vaccinated ahead of shop workers?

They shouldn't but both groups should be vaccinated ahead of me and that doesn't seem to be the intention either. Perhaps because it is hard to identify them all?

I think it’d slow the process, the blanket approach seems to be going very well. I have peers in their 30s who have now had their first.
Don’t recall the concern for nursery workers?

most essential shops have protocols in place to limit transmission

There are lots of groups of essential workers with similar or higher levels of infection than teachers (eg police and transport workers).

My understanding is that school age children spread infection mostly to their peers and families.

Considering my recent experience with our nursery Covid outbreak, I think they should get the vaccine.

You can operate bubbles, but toddlers need cuddles. And they sneeze right in your face, and jab their hands in your mouth.

When the nursery reopened only 5 out of 15 staff were well enough to return after the 2 weeks...

I think it’d slow the process

I think we should have a national booking site that allows you to register as a person that has lots of contact with others (eg teacher, police, supermarket staff) that gets you ahead of people like me (IT worker sitting at home). Some people will lie but that doesn't matter a lot.

Don’t recall the concern for nursery workers?

Nursery workers appear to lack a vocal union. But also a much smaller sector?

I think we should have a national booking site

Maybe in an ideal world, but given the government's recent record of anything requiring any sort of IT infrastructure, I'd say that would be another over-promise, under-deliver project that comes out massively delayed and over budget.

Morally I think ordering of people is a good idea. Logistically less so. Our vaccination programme is going very well, not sure tinkering with it is a good idea.

It’s slightly frustrating as I think it will over shadow many of the failings of the government.

This is the ONS deaths by occupation page

There were 139 deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) in teaching and educational professionals aged 20 to 64 years registered between 9 March and 28 December 2020 in England and Wales. For both sexes, rates of death involving COVID-19 for this group were statistically significantly lower than the rate of death involving COVID-19 among those of the same age and sex, with 18.4 deaths per 100,000 males (66 deaths) and 9.8 deaths per 100,000 females (73 deaths), compared with 31.4 and 16.8 deaths per 100,000 in the population among males and females respectively.

Schools were closed for most of that time, so I’m not sure it means much other than teachers were more able to stay at home than many other professions.

There’s also a big difference in a teacher’s ability to social distance and follow protocols depending on the age group they teach. As @Acliff points out, it’s impossible in nursery and early years.

Schools are only back for 3 weeks before Easter so it's a good window to see if there is increased transmission and cases start going up again, before the other major loosening of lockdown rules. The 'meeting one other person for coffee outside' is already happening anyway so won't make any difference.

Yep true but that in itself shows they have been somewhat protected vs other groups. I'm not sure if there has been any analysis to account for this time from home?
I think risk should be considered from an outcome perspective. The problem immediately comes once you start prioritising, is being able to substantiate that position.

The 'meeting one other person for coffee outside' is already happening anyway so won't make any difference.

Quite a few people aren't though. So officially allowing it won't mean things stay the same, it will mean a lot of people who weren't doing it before will now start doing it, and many of those that were doing it before will now move to the next stage such as meeting up in larger groups for a coffee or tramp beers.

The 'meeting one other person for coffee outside' is already happening anyway so won't make any difference.

I think it will because once that is officially allowed people will start doing whatever is next on their personal list of risky things.

Covid isn't a particularly deadly disease in working age people, so using deaths as a metric doesn't tell you a lot. Infection or hospitalisation rates would be more useful.

I wrote ‘more cautious’

Would you honestly have expected from this government that retail/hospitality would still be closed with no official reopening date other than vaguely late April?

I try not to care about what other people are doing, but went for my lunchtime walk yesterday over the park next to my house (Panshanger gravel pits / Mimram valley) and it was like early doors at a festival with queues at the gates between the fields and counted one group of 11 not even pretending to be seperate - assuming mum, dad, 3 of their grown up kids, partners and 3 kids and 4 dogs. I got really stressed out about it.

Also, speaking to a freind working at Nero, local council have threatened to close them down if they can't stop people from gathering in the little square outside the shop (just them and greggs open) and want the staff to go out and disperse groups!? I've not seen a single pcso since Christmas. During lockdown 1.0 they were perched like hawks on the edge of every green space just waiting for someone to sit down.