Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

^ Yeah.

Health Commissioner Stella Kyriakides is asked directly if she expects AstraZeneca to start shifting vaccines from the UK to EU. 'The UK factories are part of our Advanced Purchase Agreements and this is why they have to deliver. We expect the doses...to be delivered to the EU.'

Well this is troubling.

The government is all show and no substance, good t0 see boris hasn't changed.

Agree on all of this, plus not dealing with Cummings, fines not being enough and breaches enforced, and a lot of the language used about rules is not strong enough (try not to unless you have to).

Aren't AZ saying that there are issues with yield at many production sites, mentioned in articles upthread.

Aren't AZ saying that there are issues with yield at many production sites, mentioned in articles upthread.

There have been issues in many/most sites, yes. In the sites which have been running longer (due to earlier contracts) those issues were dealt with earlier.

Well this is troubling.

Well, it would be if it isn't just EU grandstanding. Which I suspect it is.

it's that the virus moves when people move.

Thats what the Black Rats said in 1346

[Please pardon frivolous response. Not certain how to react to another 1725 deaths].

Pretty sure the EU have just fucked up sadly or is just unfortunate on the current state of the vaccines they've ordered. E.g. they have ordered 170m doses of Moderna vs the UK's 7m. They've also bought 100's of millions of CureVac, Sanofi-gsk, J&J etc, perhaps they saw these as being ready sooner.

The EU prioritised negotiating a better cost per vaccine (a somewhat bizarre choice given how cheap it is and that its being sold at cost) , the UK just paid up

AstraZeneca’s chief executive Pascal Soriot said that glitches in EU
supply were the result of Brussels taking three months longer than
London to seal a deal.

He told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica that problems in "scaling
up" vaccine production had hit two plants: one in the Netherlands and
one in Belgium.

"It's complicated, especially in the early phase where you have to
really sort out all sorts of issues," he said.

"We believe we've sorted out those issues, but we are basically two
months behind where we wanted to be."

Mr Soriot added: "We've also had teething issues like this in the UK
supply chain. But the UK contract was signed three months before the
European vaccine deal. So with the UK, we have had an extra three
months to fix all the glitches we experienced.

With AZ and the EU I’m guessing the truth lies somewhere in between.
The contracts might not even cover it precisely, given precedent might not exist and therefor might have to be tested.
I think there will be some form of compromise.

It is alright, the astra zenica vaccine may not be as effective for older people anyway.

If the vaccine production is anything like Lipitor production in Cork, they will never reach targets but there will be some great stories of how people fuck up.

A compromise which would either be symbolic for the EU, or hugely problematic for the UK. The EU claims they're owed 50 million doses. That's 25 weeks of the entire UK production, if my numbers are right. Divide that between the populations of the UK and EU and the UK is screwed.

The gap is the 2-3 months though, that needs some sort of cover from the EU perspective, so potentially not such a major blow for the UK?

The EU is short more doses a week than the UK produces.

They need us more than we need them.

But the other sites will come online shortly no?

Funnily enough the EU hasn't mentioned asking India for any of their production.

The EU havnt even approved AstraZeneca yet..

As some people have said below inpatients are routinely tested after admission at various pints irrespective of Covid status so they try and pick up as much as possible, including asymptomatic, during hospital admission. On the long-stay Covid front, if a patient dies after a protracted Covid admission and Covid was the primary or contributing cause to their death this should be recorded on their death certificate and make it in to the stats via the normal reporting of death avenues (I don’t know the exact mechanisms of the process at this point)

Because no vaccines are leaving the EU to head there...?

What do you think will happen?

Because no vaccines are leaving the EU to head there...?

I suspect it's more about optics. It's fine for the EU to bully vaccines from those pesky and annoying Brits post-brexit. But from a "third world" country?

What do you think will happen?

I honestly don't know. That's why I think it's troubling. I hope it blows over, tbh.

I’ve seen reports the EU contract helped improve the U.K. sites. They’ll use the fact that EU is exporting to U.K. as a second leverage?

I don’t think it’ll be as bad as you fear, I think AZ will re-direct some towards the EU not hugely impacting the U.K. supply over 2-3 months.

I’ve seen reports the EU contract helped improve the U.K. sites.

Interesting, link? I've read it was the existing Oxford infrastructure + additional three months. (By the way, in I don't use Oxford as an analogue for "Britain" here. Many of the people who worked on the vaccine would have been from around the world).

They’ll use the fact that EU is exporting to U.K. as a second leverage?

As far as I can tell the UK received between .5 and 4 million doses from excess production capacity in Europe before Wrexham went into full operation, which the UK knowingly paid for. I suspect the order was for 4 million and they got half a million due production issues, but that's entirely speculation. We do know the UK got fewer doses last year than they expected.

Unless you're taking any the Pfizer vaccine. In which case it's just bullying.

I don’t think it’ll be as bad as you fear, I think AZ will re-direct some towards the EU not hugely impacting the U.K. supply over 2-3 months.

An amount sent that doesn't hugely impact the UK will be a drop in the ocean to the EU. But you may be right - that may be how the EU commission saves face.

My partner has just got of the phone to a friend who is currently doing two weeks in 'hotel quarantine' in New Zealand having returned there from the UK. The daily regime is 23.5 hrs in your room (with guards on each floor) and 30 mins walk around outside (supervised by the army). Daily medical from a (navy) doctor (the only contact you have with any human during the two weeks), and three basic meals a day left outside your door. When you finally leave the hotel this is followed up by comprehensive track and trace. You can see why their system is working so well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55822602

Bullying or negotiation depending on your view I guess.

I read that earlier but missed the EU claim that EU money went into upgrading UK facilities. Surprising if true, seeing as that money would have come three months after the UK contract. But it'll all come out.

Bullying or negotiation depending on your view I guess.

Art of the deal? ;)