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has anyone smart enough done the maths on the impact this has on the R rate?
It's too tricky to say now but the answer will probably be 'very little indeed'.
The UK has given a first dose to roughly 1 in 20 of the population so far (and a 2nd dose to a much smaller number).
Those 1 in 20 will be a mixture of people that are very unlikely to be contributing to transmission (e.g. people in care homes) and people who are likely to be asymptomatic spreaders (key workers like NHS staff).
If that balances out and you consider everyone in that 5% to be roughly equal in terms of transmission (aligned with the general population) then a 50% reduction in cases amongst those 5% would mean a 2.5% reduction overall.
1.3 * 0.975 = 1.2675
So that's statistically meaningless given that 1.3 is an approximation anyway and probably likely rounded to the nearest 1dp and 1.2675 rounds to 1.3.
(That's my guess anyway!)
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Greenbank
@apc
Isreals initial data found a 50% reduction in cases amongst people who have had 1st dose of vaccine, has anyone smart enough done the maths on the impact this has on the R rate?