• If there is a reduction- I suspect we're in a minor dip related to the 'tightening' pre-Christmas.

    Some hospitals are utilising a virtual ward system- with home pulse oximeters and a team dedicated to reviewing these over a period of time, with appropriate treatment being given OOH.
    I'm not sure if these will count as 'admissions' under the stats- but if so- expect a massive rise as this becomes a more utilised pathway- not necessarily reflective of a worsening in status.

    In either case- I suspect we've got a second peak in this 'wave' to come over the next fortnight, with the inevitable follow on of admissions and deaths thereafter.

    To continue my general grim predictions-by Easter we will see evidence of vaccine/ antigenic escape in a variant.

    --
    I hope I'm wrong.

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