Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Also anecdotally, I spoke to several clients today, all of them, or their families had tested positive for covid.
My wife's close work colleague is ill from it, and his mum has just died from it.

This week's numbers are not going to look good.

Lower than the UK average then (1 in ~830).

~81,000 from a population of 67,000,000.

Jesus! 1 in 1000 dead.

Nationally it's 82,624 out of 68,073,715 or 1 in 825ish.

Some good news today:

1. 2.4 million vaccinated so far (over 1m done in the last week)
   
2. Mass vaccination centres opened today
   

Of course. I think I struggle with the comprehension of this stuff sometimes.

Isle of Wight was fairly well sheltered after first lockdown.
From March 2020-Dec 2021 there were 1679 cases recorded.

In the last 11 days, there have been 2392 cases recorded.

I don't know how this compares with other areas, but for example, London is several weeks ahead , with a lower risk demographic.

I didn’t see how many deaths or new cases there have been nationally today?

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

529 deaths in the last 28 days of a positive test.
46,169 positive tests.

That’s a welcome and surprisingly large drop!

No it's up on last week's Monday tally. I think it has something to do with weekend data around deaths / processing... It's generally down after the weekend. Tomorrow will be gut wrenching.

Anyone live in Forest Gate? Is the temporary mortuary they erected on the flats in Spring still there?

The number of deaths by day is more indicative but, obviously, takes at least 28 days to come up to speed.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

The drop will be temporary, and just because of the weekend reporting problems. We'll be looking at somewhere between 1500 and 3000 real deaths per day in the next few weeks.

Oh I thought they’d resolved these reporting fluctuations.

Oh I thought they’d resolved these reporting fluctuations.

Doesn't look like it.

No, there’s still that post-weekend drop in figures to the reporting. Like Greenbank says, there will be a huge rise in the next couple of days. I was going to say a couple of days of 1300 deaths per day this week, but 1500 is easily possible. Next week I’m fairly certain it’s going to be really bad.

My prediction was that it’d max out at about 1,800.
Find year on year figures for deaths seems tricky I’ve still not found any very clear graphs to look at. My thought is they’ll have used the average as their yard stick for restrictions and acceptable death numbers.

At that rate, they'll be 100000 deaths before the end of January.
Assuming the vaccine really starts having an impact and the rate drops to 500 deaths a day in Feb, then maybe 115000 by end of Feb :(

3000 would be rough

Nowhere close to flattening the curve yet either....

That’s a welcome and surprisingly large drop!

Apparently, if you look at deaths that actually occurred today (as opposed to the deaths by date reported), the there has been a drop in deaths today.

Or so somebody who works on the data just told me, I haven't checked myself.

Just looked and it is true, but with the big caveat that you normally have to wait five days or so before the full number for a day is known.

However, I'm told that today's death figure is lower than recent Mondays, in terms of figure on the actual day.

Anyone live in Forest Gate? Is the temporary mortuary they erected on the flats in Spring still there?

Nope, been gone a while I think.

I dont think many people realise that daily deaths have only breached 700 a handful of times in this 2nd wave. Lots of people assume the daily deaths figure is for a single day when in fact it normally covers a few days.

Look at date of death figures to see what I mean. 134 today.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

Got another mission tomorrow operation funeral 😞. (non covid). Will be interesting to see if I get asked about my journey having to get a two trains 3rh journey.